Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
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Will China abolish birth limits?
The odds
51%Before 2030
- Before 203051%
- Before 202931%
- Before 202821%
- Before 20274%
How the odds have moved
Before 2030: 59% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 51% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 2.4K | |
| Before 2029 | 31% | 31¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 690 | |
| Before 2028 | 21% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 277 | |
| Before 2027 | 4% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 415 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan, People's Republic of China
Search ›-
Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Operations Group gave a speech at The Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2026 in Beijing, People's Republic of China.Latest news from the BOT Latest Speeches of Governor, Deputy Governors and BOT Executive Events/Activities held by the BOT to strengthen relationships with stakeholders Maintaining the price levels not to fluctuate too quickly in order to… -
HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of ChinaQatar news agency HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of China Doha, October 24 (QNA) - HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani sent a cable of condolences to HE President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping on the… -
Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Amir sends condolences to Chinese presidentDoha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has sent a message of condolences to President of the People s Republic of China HE Xi Jinpi... Amir sends condolences to Chinese president Doha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim… -
Amir sends condolences to president of ChinaQatar Tribune Amir sends condolences to president of China His Highness the Amir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sent a cable of condolences to President of the People's Republic of China HE Xi Jinping, on the victims… -
Photo exhibition in Kenya to mark 81st anniversary of Taiwan's restorationGuo Haiyan, Chinese Ambassador to Kenya, said the historical fact of Taiwan's restoration, together with international legal instruments, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender… - 2026 Gymnastics Worlds: Kaylia Nemour, the People's Republic of China top women's qualifying standings in RotterdamOlympic uneven bars champion Nemour sits atop the all-around and uneven bars standings, while China lead the U.S. ahead of Wednesday's (21 October) team final. Olympic champion Kaylia Nemour wasn't perfect during the qualifying round at…
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China is trying to impose its own rules around Taiwan's PratasOn 21 October, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, said that the Chinese Coast Guard operating around the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea was lawfully… -
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from… -
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited Obtains Clinical Trial Approval For SYS6088 Injection In ChinaCSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited's SYS6088 Injection developed by the Group obtained approval from the National Medical Products Administration of the People's Republic of China to conduct clinical... CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited's… -
Applying For A China Visa? New Updates For Indian Applicants From October 26From October 26 onwards, applications for Chinese visas and consular legalisation services must be submitted directly to the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India. The authorities have also announced changes to service fees… -
Retaliation Threatened if the UK Joins EU Tariffs on Chinese Electric VehiclesLondon, however, finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Beijing has recently issued a warning, with the Ministry of Commerce threatening countermeasures if the United Kingdom imposes EU-style tariffs on Chinese-built electric…
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Feb 27, 2028even chance by
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- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.3 – 197.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions