Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
92%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase92%▼ 2
- No change4%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Install
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October (Oct 27, 2026 meeting)
The odds
89%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps89%▼ 2
- Maintain current rate5%▼ 3
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 1-25bps: 68% on Oct 20, 89% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 10 PM ETHike 1-25bps: 80% → 87%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 89% | ▼ 2 | 87¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 7.0K |
| Maintain current rate | 5% | ▼ 3 | 13¢ | $7.69 | 8.6K | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 199 | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.0K | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October (Oct 27, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 91%Polymarket 92%1 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Search ›-
Week Ahead: Five G10 Central Banks Meet And Reserve Bank of New Zealand And The Bank of Canada Are Most Likely To HikeThe dollar has become more sensitive to changes in the 10-year yield than that two-year, but the correlations are both much less than earlier in the year. Read more here. - The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the euro and changes… -
Next Week in Housing: Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Fed on Oct 28A heavy week lands for anyone watching housing or interest rates. Here are the dates and the numbers economists expect. Forecasts are expectations, not results. [UPDATE] Replace this preview with the actual results after each release. 9:00… -
New Zealand Dollar stalls below 0.5700 as Oil prices dent risk appetiteRisk appetite, however, is faltering on Friday, as tensions climb in the Middle East, pushing Oil prices higher. The barrel of Brent Crude hit five-month highs above $110.00 on Friday, pushing global inflation higher, but also increasing… - Take Five: AI trade meets the FedOct 23 (Reuters) – An eye-catching week is in store as rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan announce policy decisions, while investors will gauge whether results from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft…
- Australia, NZ dollars on defensive as risk rout sparks bond rallySYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on the defensive on Friday as a rout in global share markets rattled risk assets, though bonds benefited from a flight to safety. Concerns about the enormous capital needs of AI hammered…
-
New Zealand Dollar gains ground to near 0.5700 on RBNZ rate hike prospectsThe NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5690 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar… - Weak Tech Earnings Pressure the US Dollar as Central Bank Divergence Shapes Forex MarketsThe US dollar is facing renewed pressure as disappointing earnings from major technology companies raise concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment boom. Meanwhile, expectations of further monetary…
- Major central banks strike a more hawkish tone as energy costs jumpPublished on 09/10/2026 at 10:14 am EDT - Modified on 09/11/2026 at 01:49 am EDT Sept 10 (Reuters) - Persistent inflation pressures and resilient economic growth have increased the risk of further rate hikes by major central banks, as…
-
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hikes offer limited support against USD – BBH | FXStreetشبكة تواصل الإخبارية Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that NZD/USD’s recovery stalled after reaching a one-month high, as New Zealand Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations while underlying inflation… -
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hikes offer limited support against USD - BBHBrown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that NZD/USD’s recovery stalled after reaching a one-month high, as New Zealand Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations while underlying inflation remains persistent… -
New Zealand Dollar: Inflation Points to RBNZ HikeThe New Zealand dollar is the day's G10 underperformer following domestic inflation and a dour risk-off market tone. Core inflation in New Zealand climbed in the third quarter, adding to pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)… -
RBNZ Q3 sectoral factor model inflation rate at 2.8% y/yThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Thursday its sectoral factor model of core inflation was 2.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, from a revised 2.8% in the prior quarter. Earlier in the day,... -October 21, 2026 at 10:21 pm EDT…
Related markets
All central banks ›Bank of Brazil decision in December?
48%No Change
- No Change48%▲ 26
- 25 bps decrease40%▼ 18
- 50+ bps increase6%▲ 4
2 more
- 25 bps increase4%▲ 2
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 15
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
82%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps82%
- Maintains rate17%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
60%No Change
- No Change60%▲ 42
- 25 bps decrease23%▼ 57
- 50+ bps increase9%▲ 9
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease3%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase2%▲ 2
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
52%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate52%▼ 9
- Cut 1-25bps51%▲ 25
- Hike 1-25bps1%
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November (Nov 4, 2026 meeting)
59%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate59%▲ 43
- Cut 1-25bps25%▼ 59
- Hike more than 25bps9%▲ 8
2 more
- Hike 1-25bps5%▲ 5
- Cut more than 25bps3%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions