Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November (Nov 4, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Nov 4 · $1K today · $6.9K traded · $4.1K at stake · prices read 21 min ago

The odds

69%Maintain current rate
  • Maintain current rate69%▲ 11
  • Cut 1-25bps25%▲ 1
  • Hike 1-25bps3%▲ 1
  • Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 2
  • Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 10

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 10% on Oct 19, 69% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 11 PM ETMaintain current rate: 60% → 68%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Maintain current rate 69% ▲ 11 67¢ 70¢ $1.43 7.7K
Cut 1-25bps 25% ▲ 1 24¢ 26¢ $3.85 5.9K
Hike 1-25bps 3% ▲ 1 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 3.4K
Cut more than 25bps 1% ▼ 2 2¢ $50.00 1.4K
Hike more than 25bps 1% ▼ 10 2¢ $50.00 1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Central Bank of Brazil

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