Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.6median
140230
Median 189.6Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada? (Before Jul 2029)
The odds
43%Before Jul 1, 2029
- Before Jul 1, 20275%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20289%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202812%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202928%
- Before Jul 1, 202943%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 9% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 12% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 28% | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.00 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2029 | 43% | 39¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 498 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney
Search ›-
Mark Carney Rejects US Election Interference ClaimsCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Friday there is "no merit" to US allegations that Canadian politicians are interfering in next month's US midterm elections.... Mark Carney Rejects US Election Interference Claims Canadian Prime… -
Mark Carney Siblings: All About Sean, Brenda and Brian CarneyMark Joseph Carney is a Canadian economist, banker, and politician who has served as the 24th Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party since March 2025. Born on March 16, 1965, in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, he is… -
Statement by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carneyİletişim Başkanlığı Statement by President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan and Prime Minister Mark Carney His Excellency Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan, President of the Republic of Türkiye and the Right Honourable Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada… -
U.S. Consulate Officially Outlines Canadian Efforts to Interfere in U.S. Elections - PM Mark Carney Says, "We are very careful not to be seen to Interfere"The aspect that is laughable is not that Canadian government officials constantly try to interfere and manipulate U.S. elections, the laughable part is that their Prime Minister would deny it in the face of overwhelming evidence. Canada… -
Mark Carney Insists Bringing Canada Closer to Islamist, Anti-LGBTQA2+ Turkey Fits ‘Values-Based Realism’Leftist Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney insisted during a press conference in Istanbul, Turkey, on Friday that expanding economic and defense ties with the Islamist state was not a violation of his progressive values, declaring… - GOLDSTEIN: Mark Carney’s selective morality on human rightsThe Prime Minister makes an argument of necessity, but Israel can make the same argument If Mark Carney is going to keep gallivanting around the world making trade deals with the world’s worst dictatorships and downplaying their…
- Michael Higgins: Mahmoud Abbas played Mark Carney for a foolOur prime minister is now left looking weak and powerless after being outfoxed by Abbas Prime Minister Mark Carney’s threat to hold the Palestinian Authority “to account” for not holding elections this year is not a joke, but it’s…
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits TurkeyThe Lufkin Daily News Turkey's Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand, with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the foreground, attend a… -
Video: LIVE: Canada PM Mark Carney speaks after Alberta voted to stay in CanadaAbout LiveTube Ltd. 🌍 🚀 Welcome to LiveTube! We believe in the power of real-time content. Our platform allows users to broadcast their stories to the world, unfiltered and in real-time. We're passionate about providing a space where… -
Scott Stinson: Mark Carney sings from the Doug Ford songbookThe prime minister touts billions of dollars in joint investments in steel, autos and mining to protect Ontario from tariff shocks Just about every public pronouncement from Doug Ford in recent months has had a similar cadence. He laments… -
Bill Clinton Says U.S. Treats Canada “Like Dirt,” Calls Mark Carney “About the Most Well-Qualified Leader in the World”Follow us: Instagram · Pinterest · YouTube · Facebook Bill Clinton Says U.S. Treats Canada “Like Dirt,” Calls Mark Carney “About the Most Well-Qualified Leader in the World” Former U.S. president Bill Clinton says he’s “tired of treating… - LILLEY: PM Mark Carney's steel spin won't save a single jobOttawa wants Stelco to rehire 500 workers while refusing to tackle the policies, tariffs and trade barriers that are making Canadian steel harder to sell We’ll build a new LNG export terminal using Chinese steel, keep letting in cheap…
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions