Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? (Before Nov 5, 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 4 · $317K traded · $48.9K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

98%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 98% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	98%	▲ 1	96¢	99¢	$1.01	325.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California

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California’s road to recovery runs through D.C. RepublicansPOLITICO · 31 h agoBy Jeremy B. White 05/07/2020 08:44 PM EDT OAKLAND — California has come to a conclusion around its budget in the pandemic era: Only the feds can save us now. Gov. Gavin Newsom and his financial advisers have long warned that the federal…
LA’s top federal prosecutor scorches California after noncitizen voters battleCalifornia Post · 30 h agoLos Angeles’ top federal prosecutor has warned the upcoming midterm elections are under serious risk of being “corrupted” in California. Bill Essayli said he was concerned noncitizen votes were already being counted across the state, with…
Justice Department faces skeptical appeals court panel in California ballot fightPOLITICO · 32 h agoAll three judges voiced concerns that the DOJ rushed too quickly to the appeals court while a lower-court judge was still weighing the matter. Ballots are sorted the day after California's primary election at the LA County Ballot…
Steve Hilton unveils his vision for California bullet trainCalifornia Post · 35 h agoCalifornia gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is pitching a dramatic end to the state’s troubled high-speed rail project — imagining a future where the multibillion-dollar undertaking is transformed into a monument to government failure…
Ninth Circuit questions Trump DOJ's emergency request to set aside 20,000 California mail ballotsFox News · 31 h agoA three-judge federal appeals panel questioned the Trump administration's emergency bid to set aside roughly 20,000 California mail ballots tied to suspected noncitizens ahead of the midterms, with a ruling pending. A federal appeals court…
Judges skeptical of Trump administration effort to force California to set aside mail ballotsCNN · 33 h agoA three-judge US Circuit Court of Appeals panel expressed significant skepticism Sunday over the Justice Department’s desire to inject itself into California’s midterm vote-counting process by forcing election officials to set aside the…
DOJ's voter fraud investigation continues as California early voting centers openCBS News · 37 h agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. DOJ's voter…
Appeals Court Scrutinizes Trump Administration's Bid to Set Aside California Mail Ballots-6ade99858d0b7a844a8d9814-100-0.mp4Fox News · 32 h agoA three-judge federal appeals panel questioned the Trump administration's emergency bid to set aside roughly 20,000 California mail ballots tied to suspected noncitizens ahead of the midterms, with a ruling pending. Appeals Court…
Ex-NFL punter turned California Democrat sparks fury with ‘racist’ banana stunt: ‘Toxic mockery’California Post · 37 h agoCalifornia Democrats are facing backlash over a political mailer depicting a Latina Republican candidate as a banana sticker, with the Orange County GOP blasting the image as a racially degrading attack. The mailer, paid for by the…
LA’s top federal prosecutor says California elections already in jeopardyCalifornia Post · 44 h agoLos Angeles’ top federal prosecutor fears noncitizens could be illegally casting ballots in California as dozens of polling places opened across LA County Saturday, warning the state could be trying to run out the clock before disputed…
California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesPOLITICO · 46 h agoJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city…
California processes ballots. Trump's Justice Department panicsLos Angeles Times · 22 h agoMy fellow Californians, let us begin with an intelligence test. Our great state has been voting since early October. Folks have been mailing in their ballots, dropping them off at collection sites and even showing up at in-person centers…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCalifornia Secretary of State, relevant Secretary of State office, official government websites for area

Trading closesNov 4, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$317K (324,981 contracts)

This week$3.2K

At stake$48.9K

In the news125 headlines today, 894 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions