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Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Yisrael Beiteinu win? (Oct 27, 2026)
The odds
7.46median
113
Median 7.46Middle half 5.90 – 8.69
How the odds have moved
Median: 7.49 on Oct 19, 7.46 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 5 | 89% | ▼ 1 | 86¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 499 |
| Above 6 | 74% | ▼ 2 | 70¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | |
| Above 7 | 62% | ▼ 2 | 59¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 165 |
| Above 8 | 36% | ▼ 5 | 33¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 200 |
| Above 9 | 20% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 95.00 |
| Above 11 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 65.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Yisrael Beiteinu
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Lieberman: Yisrael Beiteinu party to sit in oppositionAvigdor Lieberman said his Yisrael Beiteinu party would not join the new government coalition and he was resigning as foreign minister. Lieberman, who heads the right-wing party, said in an announcement on Monday that he would submit a… -
Dissent In The Ranks: Yisrael Beiteinu MK Quits PartyYisrael Beiteinu MK Eli Avidar announced on Sunday morning that he will be operating independently in the new government and will not commit to voting with Yisrael Beiteinu or being part of the party. However, Avidar said that he will vote… -
Yisrael Beiteinu responds to Eisenkot: 'He should clarify who his partners are'The Yisrael Beiteinu party responded to statements by Yesh! chairman Gadi Eisenkot, who sharply attacked party chairman Avigdor Liberman and Yachad chairman Naftali Bennett. Yisrael Beiteinu stated: "Liberman has no ego and has experience… -
“A Dictator, Hates Everyone, A Liar”- Ex-Yisrael Beiteinu Minister Slams LiebermanSofa Landver, a former senior Yisrael Beiteinu MK who served as the Minister of Aliyah and Absorption for eight years, published a video on Sunday night revealing her true opinion of her former boss, Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor… - Yisrael Beiteinu: Merger with Likud won’t make Lieberman PMYisrael Beiteinu has denied reports that party leader Avigdor Lieberman would become prime minister under a secret pact between his movement and Likud. “There is no pact for rotation in the role of prime minister,” Yisrael Beiteinu…
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Israel Election 2026 Date: When Will Israelis Vote? Check Election Schedule, Key Candidates, Major Parties & Latest UpdatesThe Israel Election 2026 is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The vote will determine the composition of the 26th Knesset, Israel’s national legislature. According to the official election timetable, the publication of election… -
Final polls: no side has majorityAll four TV channels publish their final pre-election surveys, showing the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead by two to six seats, but short of the 61 needed for a coalition. Eisenkot's Yashar leads as largest party; chareidi turnout surges to 88%… -
Israeli Political Scientist Outlines 3 Possible Scenarios for Parliamentary ElectionsTEL AVIV (Sputnik) - Events surrounding parliamentary elections in Israel could unfold according to one of three scenarios, with the possibility of a coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu securing a parliamentary majority… -
RIGHT-WING SURGES: Channel 14 Gives Netanyahu Bloc 64 Seats As Rival Polls Show Much Tighter RacePrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc has strengthened by one seat to 64 mandates following the closing of the party lists for the Knesset, while the left-wing bloc remains unchanged at 44 and the Arab parties fall from 13 to… -
Change Bloc Demands Gantz Withdraw: “He Insists On Staying In The Race Until The End”Pressure on Benny Gantz to withdraw from the Knesset race is mounting. According to a Ynet report, senior members of the Change Bloc have been working in recent days to persuade the Blue And White chairman not to run in the elections… - NEW ELECTION POLL: Likud Leads With 27 Seats, Netanyahu’s Bloc at 57—Four Short of Governing MajorityA new i24NEWS poll ahead of Israel’s upcoming elections shows Likud winning 27 seats, Eisenkot’s Yashar 21, Bennett’s Beyachad 13, Democrats and Otzma Yehudit 9 each, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List 7…
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NO NETANYAHU: Lieberman Rules Out Coalition With Prime Minister, Chareidi Parties Or Arab ListsYisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman is drawing firm lines for a future coalition, ruling out any government with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the Chareidi parties, Ra’am, or the Joint List. “We will establish a coalition made…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions