U.S. oil production per day in 2026

Kalshi Economy Closes Dec 31 · $1 today · $14K traded · $4.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

14.1median

13.914.6

Median 14.1Middle half 14.0 – 14.2

How the odds have moved

Median: 14.1 on Oct 20, 14.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 14.00M bpd	84%	▼ 2	81¢	86¢	$1.16	12.1K
At least 14.10M bpd	39%		35¢	42¢	$2.38	7.5K
At least 14.25M bpd	13%		11¢	15¢	$6.67	5.1K
At least 14.40M bpd	6%		4¢	8¢	$12.50	6.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Fed Decision in October?

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Fed Decision in December?

76%25 bps increase

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50+ bps increase3%

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25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.04median

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Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.32

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30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

5.26%median

1.74%8.24%

Median 5.26%Middle half 2.98% – 7.16%

Economy › Growth & recession

Wisconsin corn yield in 2026

182.8median

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Median 182.8Middle half 178.2 – 187.8

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

17%Below 4.00%

3.9%4.55%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Energy Information Administration, The New York Times, the Associated Press

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$14K (31,578 contracts)

Today$1

At stake$4.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions