Arizona State Treasurer winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $4 today · $129 traded · $129 at stake · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

57%Elijah Norton

Elijah Norton57%▼ 1
Nick Mansour42%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Elijah Norton: 55% on Oct 19, 57% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Elijah Norton	57%	▼ 1	53¢	62¢	$1.61	75.00
Nick Mansour	42%	▼ 1	38¢	46¢	$2.17	205

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Arizona State Treasurer, Elijah Norton, Nick Mansour

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Candidates for Arizona treasurer threaten legal action, accuse each other of lying in campaign adsKJZZ · 4 days agoArizona state treasurer candidate Elijah Norton is refusing to stop putting out attack ads his Democratic opponent, Nick Mansour, says are full of lies. Mansour’s team sent a cease-and-desist letter to Norton earlier this month, but Norton…
Hurricane Season for Arizona Republicans?Highground Inc. · 13 days agoState Treasurer Democratic candidate Nick Mansour now holds a 9.2-point advantage over Republican Elijah Norton (44.5% Mansour/35.3% Norton) in the race for Arizona State Treasurer. Mansour’s lead among unaffiliated voters has grown from…
President Trump’s Arizona rally: Who’s In, who’s out?Arizona Daily Star · 13 days agoGubernatorial nominee Rep. Andy Biggs will speak at President Donald Trump's rally Wednesday in Bullhead City, while at least one other GOP contender in a close race will skip the event less than three weeks before Election Day. Biggs is a…
New Poll Shows Mayes, Petersen Tied In Arizona Attorney General Race - AZ FREE NEWS@AZFreeNews · 14 days agoDemocratic Attorney General Kris Mayes and Republican challenger Warren Petersen each received 45% support among likely voters in a newly released Equis Research survey, while Gov. Katie Hobbs led Republican Andy Biggs, 49% to 43%. The…
AZGOP Files Complaint With Maricopa County Attorney’s Office Against Tammy Caputi For Apparent Fraud, Forgery, And PerjuryAZGOP · 14 days agoPHOENIX — On Monday, Arizona Republican Party Chairman Sergio Arellano sent a letter to Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell requesting an investigation into possible felonious misconduct by Tammy Caputi, candidate for Arizona House of…
Letter to the Editor: Character and values matter in City Council raceArizona Daily Sun · 15 days agoArizona Daily Sun Please do not vote for Lori Matthews and Nancy Baca for Flagstaff City Council.Matthews has been a controversial politician ever since she ran for office in 2022 -- and with good reason In that election alone, she…
Political Notebook: ‘Evil Torta,’ three other weird Tucson signs, explainedArizona Daily Star · 24 days agoThe signs popped up over the summer and have spread and multiplied in form since then. “Evil Torta,” said the first ones, scrawled by hand. Signs reading "Evil Torta" — a slang term used to insult women — started spreading in Tucson over…
Mansour puts education fund at center of treasurer bidEastern Arizona Courier · 24 days agoNick Mansour speaks with the Eastern Arizona Courier after an event in Sierra Vista last Tuesday. An ASU survey finds strong support for early voting despite election-fraud concerns, while Democratic incumbents lead three statewide races…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArizona Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$129 (280 contracts)

Today$4

This week$32

At stake$129

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Nick Mansour wins the 2026 Arizona State Treasurer general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions