Fed Decision in October?
93%No change
- No change93%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
The odds
88.72Mmedian
70.00M155.00M
Median 88.72MMiddle half 86.58M – 92.15M
How the odds have moved
Median: 88.93M on Oct 20, 88.72M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 75 million | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 40.00 | |
| At least 80 million | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 85 million | 94% | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 90 million | 35% | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 1.1K | |
| At least 95 million | 12% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 525 | |
| At least 100 million | 12% | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 5.7K | |
| At least 105 million | 9% | 6¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 2.0K | |
| At least 110 million | 9% | ▲ 2 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 5.9K |
| At least 115 million | 7% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 6.4K |
| At least 120 million | 5% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 6.1K |
| At least 125 million | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 3.3K | |
| At least 130 million | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 479 | |
| At least 135 million | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 433 | |
| At least 140 million | 2% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.1K | ||
| At least 145 million | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | ||
| At least 150 million | 2% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 7.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska
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Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
Attorney General Defends Alaska Election Lawsuit as Murkowski Pushes BackOct 24, 2026 at 07:32 PM EDT Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the Justice Department’s lawsuit over Alaska’s closely watched Senate election on Saturday, as Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski said the department “should never have… -
Trump's Words Used Against Him in Alaska Lawsuit, DOJ Sanctions SoughtOct 24, 2026 at 08:43 AM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 10:11 AM EDT President Trump’s words were used against him in a legal motion filed on Friday seeking to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the Department of Justice (DOJ) that could potentially block… -
Trump makes Alaska the latest frontier in his election power grabThe move by the Justice Department to try and preemptively block Alaska’s Senate results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses stunned officials in both parties. President Donald Trump talks with Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, at a campaign… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
Orphaned Alaska walrus calf makes 4,000-mile journey to new home at SeaWorld OrlandoAn orphaned baby walrus from Alaska recently found a new home over 4,000 miles away at Florida’s SeaWorld. US Geological Survey biologist Tony Fischbach and intern Violet Anniskett found the 5-month-old, 220-pound walrus calf on a beach in… -
In remote Alaska, a family making $155K struggles to uphold traditional lifestyleBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Living a traditional… -
Trump administration sues to block certification of upcoming Alaska electionSenator Dan Sullivan, right, is in a tight race with Democratic contender Mary Peltola. The Trump administration wants to block the certification of the Senate race in Alaska if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses, arguing that another… -
Justice Department sues to block Alaska Senate race results if Republican losesAt President Trump's direction, the Justice Department sued Friday to block the certification of the Alaska Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing the presence of another candidate on the ballot bearing the… -
New Trump rule allows hunters to bait bears in Alaska with doughnuts, bacon and moreCritics decry Trump administration rule that lets hunters lure bears with human foods on federal lands in Alaska A new Trump administration rule allows hunters to bait bears on federal lands in Alaska with bacon, doughnuts, meat scraps or… -
Trump DOJ sues to block Alaska's US Senate race results if the Republican losesThe Trump administration has preemptively filed a lawsuit to block certification of Alaskaâs Senate election, but only if the GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. "A first year law student wouldn't write this complaint," says former…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Wisconsin corn yield in 2026
182.8median
160200
Median 182.8Middle half 178.2 – 187.8
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
4.99%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 4.99%Middle half 2.9% – 7.21%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
16%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions