Fed Decision in October?
92%No change
- No change92%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase8%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?
The odds
85%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 85% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 84¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 34.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC
Search ›-
Fed policy, Q2 earnings, crude oil prices among key market triggers next weekStock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision Mumbai: Stock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, a packed corporate earnings calendar, crude oil price movements… -
FPIs withdraw ₹48,056 cr from equities in October so far amid elevated crude oil pricesPublished - October 25, 2026 01:56 pm IST - New Delhi Foreign investors have withdrawn ₹48,056 crore from Indian equities in October so far, amid elevated crude oil prices, escalating West Asia tensions, concerns over inflation and weak… -
Crude oil price slips from six-month highs despite supply concernsOil prices fell on Monday after surging to near six-month highs late last week, although ongoing attacks on Saudi Arabia kept supply concerns in focus. US crude futures were down $1.60, or 1.55%, at $101.67 per barrel by 0018 GMT… -
US Equity Futures Climb as Crude Oil Price Dips: Markets Wrap(Bloomberg) — US stock futures advanced and crude oil retreated as traders weighed the latest geopolitical developments over Iran and looked ahead to a string of central bank rate decisions this week. Asian stocks looked set for a mixed… -
FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil pricesForeign portfolio investors sold Rs 53,337 crore worth of Indian equities in October so far as elevated crude oil prices, market weakness and economic pressures weighed on investor sentiment. FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so… -
FPIs withdraw Rs 48,056 cr from equities in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil pricesForeign investors withdrew significant funds from Indian equities in October amid concerns over inflation and crude oil prices. Despite this, there were signs of moderation in selling with two days of net buying. The overall FPI outflows… -
Crude Oil Prices Near $120 Amid West Asia Tensions, US Fed Rate Decision & Supply Risks In FocusNew Delhi: Global crude oil prices are approaching the USD 120 per barrel mark as escalating tensions in West Asia and the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision keep energy markets on edge. Analysts expect another volatile week amid… -
Crude oil prices, US Fed policy decision to steer rupee, bonds this weekSoaring oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision will be key drivers of the Indian rupee and government bonds this week, while domestic liquidity conditions pose an additional challenge for bonds. The rupee settled… -
Sensex Falls 134 Points And Nifty Slips Below 22,600 As Rising Crude Oil Prices And West Asia Tensions Weigh On InvestorsMumbai: Indian stock markets opened on a weak note on Monday, October 26, as elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia weighed on investor sentiment. Selling pressure in IT stocks further dragged down the… -
Crude oil price prediction: is a $120 shock coming after Brent falls to $114?AI Sentiment: 58/100 Bullish Key Risk: Diplomacy actually holds and Middle East shipping keeps normalizing, letting inventories and refined-product stocks rebuild fast enough to cap Brent well below $120. Buy diesel crack spreads (e.g… -
Benchmark indices snap two-week winning streak amid rising crude oil pricesMumbai: Benchmark domestic indices snapped their two-week rising streak dragged by higher crude oil prices due to escalating West Asia conflict. During the holiday-shortened week, the 30-share Sensex at the Bombay Stock Exchange declined 1… -
Gold gains on softer oil prices; Fed decision in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices tempered inflation concerns, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 0342 GMT, after hitting its…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%▼ 1
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
4.98%median
4.78%5.1%
Median 4.98%Middle half 4.97% – 5%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
28%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions