Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Which of these African leaders will leave office next? (Before 2035)
The odds
28%Bola Tinubu
- Bola Tinubu28%▲ 12
- Cyril Ramaphosa15%▼ 1
- Abdel Fattah el-Sisi6%
- William Ruto5%
- John Mahama5%
- Abdelmadjid Tebboune4%
- Félix Tshisekedi4%
- Paul Kagame3%
- Taye Atske Selassie2%
- Emmerson Mnangagwa1%
How the odds have moved
Bola Tinubu: 14% on Oct 20, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 7 AM ETBola Tinubu: 17% → 28%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bola Tinubu | 28% | ▲ 12 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 2.8K |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 15% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 2.4K |
| Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 6% | 3¢ | 9¢ | $10.75 | 1.1K | |
| William Ruto | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | 2.2K | |
| John Mahama | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | 252 | |
| Abdelmadjid Tebboune | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 351 | |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | 10.5K | |
| Paul Kagame | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 1.8K | |
| Taye Atske Selassie | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 1.0K | |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bola Tinubu, Cyril Ramaphosa
Search ›-
President Cyril Ramaphosa To Unveil Revised White Paper On Local Government: What The Reforms Could Mean For Your MunicipalityPresident Cyril Ramaphosa will unveil the revised White Paper on Local Government at the Birchwood Hotel and OR Tambo Conference Centre in Boksburg, Ekurhuleni, today, Thursday, 22 October 2026. The policy sets out how government plans to… - President Cyril Ramaphosa : Official launch of the revised White Paper on Local GovernmentWe gather here today to undertake one of the most important reforms of our democratic era.The launch of this White Paper on Local Government is a landmark moment in the evolution of our democracy. Nearly three decades after the original…
-
"Promise Made": Pensioner Complains About SASSA Pension to Cyril Ramaphosa, SA Notes His ResponseAn elderly South African woman made her feelings known when President Cyril Ramaphosa came to her street. During a community walkabout filmed on 19 October 2026, the gogo told the president plainly that her SASSA pension was too little… -
Cyril Ramaphosa Apologises for Bronkhorstspruit Water Crisis, South Africans Demand AccountabilityByron Pillay, a Briefly News journalist, has spent a decade reporting on South Africa's political landscape, crime, and social issues. He worked as a newspaper journalist for 10 years before transitioning to online journalism. GAUTENG —… - President Cyril Ramaphosa launches the revised White Paper on Local Government, 22 OctPresident Cyril Ramaphosa will tomorrow, Thursday, 22 October 2026, launch the Cabinet-approved Revised White Paper on Local Government (WPLG), 2026, at the Birchwood Hotel & OR Tambo Conference Centre in Ekurhuleni, Gauteng. The launch…
-
Even Cyril Ramaphosa says DA municipalities work best - GHLEven President Ramaphosa agrees: Where the DA governs, South Africa works Today, we unveiled a new billboard here in Cape Town with a message that every South African deserves to hear. And the message comes from President Cyril Ramaphosa… -
Durban Killing: Why Is South Africa’s Anti-Migrant Anger Growing?Oct 23, 2026 at 02:29 PM EDT A foreign national was beaten to death by a crowd of around 50 people in South Africa, amid months of tensions over immigration across the country. The man, believed to be in his late 30s or early 40s, was… -
South Africans react to Cyril Ramaphosa’s viral R20 church offering (watch)Home » News » Elections - Local, National and Municipal » South Africans react to Cyril Ramaphosa’s viral R20 church offering (watch) President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to a church in Khayelitsha during the ANC’s Western Cape election… -
Cyril Ramaphosa defends media freedom at ‘Black Wednesday’ eventPresident Cyril Ramaphosa has strongly defended the right of journalists to scrutinise and criticise politicians, emphasising that the media freedoms enshrined in South Africa’s constitution must never be taken for granted in a… -
Cyril Ramaphosa tells South Africa to prepare for loss of U.S.-Africa trade dealPublished - October 19, 2026 10:27 pm IST - Johannesburg, South Africa South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday (October 19, 2026) the country should “prepare” for the possibility of being removed from Washington’s duty-free… -
Bola Tinubu Plans To Assassinate Atiku Before 2027 Elections, Former APC Chieftain Timi Frank Tells Trump, Other World LeadersFrank made the appeal in an open letter addressed to Trump and other international leaders on Monday, raising concerns over Atiku’s safety and the possibility of state institutions being used against opposition figures as political… -
Six Years After #EndSARS, Sanwo-Olu, Bola Tinubu and the Entire APC Government’s Hands Still Stained With Blood Of Nigerian Youths Killed For Demanding JusticeOn October 20, 2020, Nigerian soldiers opened fire on unarmed protesters at the Lekki toll gate in Lagos, turning a peaceful demonstration into a night of bloodshed. Young Nigerians who had gathered to demand an end to the brutality of the…
Related markets
All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
293.4median
250340
Median 293.4Middle half 280.8 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.2median
160230
Median 197.2Middle half 189.8 – 202.7
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202718%
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202856%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
19%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20268%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202719%▼ 1
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.8median
140230
Median 185.8Middle half 176.0 – 197.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.