Predictions › News Topics Mentions Speeches, briefings, posts and earnings calls: what they will say.
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100 519
Median 283.4 Middle half 264.8 – 305.0
300 519
Median 329.5 Middle half 324.8 – 334.3
16 264
Median 77.0 Middle half 71.0 – 83.1
China / Chinese 100% ▲ 12 Supreme Court 100% ▲ 35 Tariff (3+ times) 100% ▲ 31 36 more Barack Hussein Obama 100% ▲ 27 Made in America / American Made 100% ▲ 46 Nuclear (3+ times) 100% ▲ 28 Gulf of America 100% ▲ 56 AI / Artificial Intelligence 100% ▲ 74 Blockade 100% ▲ 75 America First 100% ▲ 83 Data Center 100% ▲ 80 Save America Act 98% ▲ 2 Cheat / Cheater / Cheating 96% ▲ 9 Hormuz 94% ▲ 59 Iran (5+ times) 80% ▲ 23 Kamala 68% ▲ 5 Russia / Ukraine 64% ▼ 3 Sleepy Joe 61% ▼ 21 Small Business 58% ▼ 5 Veteran 54% ▼ 2 Sanctuary 45% ▼ 2 Diesel 44% ▼ 21 Hurricane 33% ▲ 13 NATO 33% ▲ 12 Drill Baby Drill 27% ▲ 6 Israel / Israeli 25% ▼ 7 Social Security (5+ times) 24% ▲ 2 Boeing 22% ▲ 6 Fentanyl 22% ▼ 10 Deport / Deported / Deportation 16% ▼ 5 Fraud (3+ times) 14% ▼ 5 Windmill 12% ▼ 18 Palestine / Palestinian 12% ▼ 11 FEMA 9% ▼ 3 Electricity 9% ▼ 17 Crypto / Bitcoin 3% ▲ 1 Peace in the Middle East 1% ▼ 2 Ceasefire 1% ▼ 4 Event does not qualify 1%
1 599
Median 302.1 Middle half 265.5 – 344.9
840 1,039
Median 1,019 Middle half 1,010 – 1,029
Blockade 100% ▲ 14 Vivek / Ramaswamy 100% ▲ 43 Cybersecurity / Cyber Security 100% ▲ 82 24 more Bibi / Netanyahu 81% ▲ 9 Rigged Election / Stolen Election 74% ▼ 5 Ethanol 72% ▲ 4 Autopen / Auto Pen 60% ▼ 6 Houthi 47% ▲ 1 Cuba / Cuban 47% ▲ 3 TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome 46% ▼ 12 Tomahawk 40% ▲ 1 Nobel 36% ▲ 5 Stupid Question 30% ▲ 7 Ceasefire 27% ▼ 18 Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice 23% ▼ 15 Zohran / Mamdani 22% Antifa 20% ▼ 3 Crypto / Bitcoin 18% ▲ 11 Zacharia 17% ▼ 10 Uranium 14% ▲ 10 Peace in the Middle East 9% ▼ 2 Golden Dome 7% ▲ 1 Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis 7% ▼ 2 Epstein 6% ▲ 1 UFO / UAP 5% ▲ 1 Prediction Market / Predictive Market 5% ▼ 1 Make Iran Great Again 3% Cybertruck 100% ▲ 67 Merge / Merger 100% ▲ 69 Robotaxi 100% ▲ 2 22 more Tariff 100% ▲ 28 Terafab 100% ▲ 10 China 100% ▲ 27 Cybercab 100% ▲ 2 Roadster 100% ▲ 6 SpaceX / xAI 100% ▲ 14 Semi 100% ▲ 8 Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation 100% ▲ 6 Megapack 3 100% ▲ 37 Solar 100% ▲ 13 Competition 100% ▲ 31 Grok (3+ times) 1% ▼ 57 Six-Seater / Six-Seat 1% ▼ 16 Miami 1% ▼ 31 Afford / Affordable 1% ▼ 68 Safety Monitor 1% ▼ 41 Gigafactory 1% ▼ 26 Supercharger / Super Charger 1% ▼ 61 Iran / Middle East 1% ▼ 12 Waymo 1% ▼ 27 Intel 1% ▼ 42 Samsung 1% ▼ 69 A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .