Predictions › News Topics › Elections State and local Mayors, ballot measures, state legislatures and the local races.
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Nithya Raman 51% Karen Bass 49% Olivia Chow 67% ▼ 9 Brad Bradford 32% ▲ 8 Ana Bailão <1% 5 more Michael Ford <1% Anthony Furey <1% Marco Mendicino <1% John Tory <1% Kevin Clarke <1%
Letitia James 92% ▲ 1 Saritha Komatireddy 8% ▼ 1 Letitia James (D) 92% ▲ 3 Saritha Komatireddy (R) 8% ▼ 3 David Morales 96% ▼ 2 Brett Smiley 1% David Talan 1% 2 more Michael English 1% Allen Waters 1% Haniff Hoosen 27% ▼ 9 Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi 10% ▼ 17 Mkhuleko Hlengwa 10% ▼ 1 10 more Philani Mavundla 6% Zandile Hlophe-Mkhwanazi 5% Thabani Nyawose 4% Cyril Xaba 4% ▲ 1 Zandile Gumede 1% Maggie Govender <1% Hlengiwe Mkhaliphi <1% Zwakele Mncwango <1% Nomusa Dube-Ncube <1% Mina Soma-Lesoma <1% Lieutenant Governor 96% Secretary of State 96% Attorney General 96% ▲ 1 6 more Commissioner of Insurance 96% ▲ 3 Governor 95% Commissioner of Agriculture 94% Senate 93% Commissioner of Labor 92% State Superintendent of Schools 92% A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .