Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Dems' best tossup Senate race?
The odds
25%Ohio
- Ohio25%▲ 7
- Texas25%▲ 2
- Michigan24%▼ 2
- Maine18%▼ 2
- Alaska8%▲ 6
- Iowa1%
How the odds have moved
Ohio: 11% on Oct 20, 25% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 24, 11 PM ETOhio: 46% → 15%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 25% | ▲ 7 | 25¢ | 33¢ | $3.06 | $1.6K |
| Texas | 25% | ▲ 2 | 21¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | $2.7K |
| Michigan | 24% | ▼ 2 | 24¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | $5.7K |
| Maine | 18% | ▼ 2 | 12¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | $2.5K |
| Alaska | 8% | ▲ 6 | 2¢ | 18¢ | $5.62 | $1.3K |
| Iowa | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $490 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Dems, Senate
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Alaska Dem Mary Peltola in car crash during final sprint for SenateAlaska Senate Democratic hopeful Mary Peltola suffered minor injuries in a car crash Saturday, temporarily sidelining her campaign, according to her team. Peltola, 53, was en route to the Alaska Federation of Natives Annual Banquet when… -
Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate… -
Steve Hilton hits Dem governor's 2028 pitch by calling out Newsom's rail recordSteve Hilton questioned California's unfinished high-speed rail project after Andy Beshear touted Democratic governors' accomplishments on HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher,' prompting Maher to agree. Republican California gubernatorial… -
Dreadful Elon Musk hit-piece documentary only serves to fuel Dems’ frenzy against him before midtermsThe new Elon Musk documentary, “Musk”, is an excruciatingly boring four hours of Luddite fearmongering and left-wing sermonizing. The point clearly wasn’t entertainment. The movie is so awful that even in Musk-loathing Manhattan it played… -
Trump weighs MASS pardons after Dem's WARNING to staffersPresident Donald Trump discusses potential pardons for administration staffers after Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s warning to young conservatives looking to work in the administration. Trump weighs MASS pardons after Dem's WARNING to staffers… -
"We're all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-SayedCNN ‘We’re all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed CNN's Jessica Dean speaks to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin about the neck-and-neck Senate race in Michigan as… -
9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate… -
Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026… -
Hochul calls FBI probe a ‘hit job’ as Dem boss accused of trying to buy votesGov. Kathy Hochul brushes off a federal investigation into a Long Island Democratic Party boss accused of trying to buy votes as a “political hit job.” The governor, speaking to reporters in Midtown Manhattan on Friday, stood up for… -
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James… -
Democratic Senate Candidate: Trump Did ‘Better Job’ on Border Than BidenOct 25, 2026 at 05:52 PM EDT Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, said President Donald Trump has done a “better job” on the border than former President Joe Biden, while identifying several areas where he could work… -
Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions