Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
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Which Senate races will be within 1%?
The odds
26%Montana
- Montana26%▲ 5
- Kansas22%▲ 1
- Iowa20%▼ 2
- Nebraska19%▼ 1
- Michigan18%▼ 2
- Maine17%
- Texas16%▼ 1
- Ohio (Special)14%▼ 3
- Alaska9%▼ 8
- Minnesota8%
- South Carolina8%
- Florida (Special)8%▼ 1
7 more
- New Hampshire7%
- Georgia5%
- Mississippi5%▼ 1
- North Carolina4%
- Virginia4%
- Colorado4%▲ 1
- New Mexico3%
How the odds have moved
Montana: 33% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 26% | ▲ 5 | 20¢ | 31¢ | $3.26 | $723 |
| Kansas | 22% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $2.2K |
| Iowa | 20% | ▼ 2 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $886 |
| Nebraska | 19% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | $1.3K |
| Michigan | 18% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 19¢ | $5.32 | $3.5K |
| Maine | 17% | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $3.6K | |
| Texas | 16% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | $2.2K |
| Ohio (Special) | 14% | ▼ 3 | 11¢ | 17¢ | $5.95 | $2K |
| Alaska | 9% | ▼ 8 | 7¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $4.5K |
| Minnesota | 8% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.3K | |
| South Carolina | 8% | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $738 | |
| Florida (Special) | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $218 |
| New Hampshire | 7% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $720 | |
| Georgia | 5% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | $1.3K | |
| Mississippi | 5% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $749 |
| North Carolina | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $689 | |
| Virginia | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $1.1K | |
| Colorado | 4% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $985 |
| New Mexico | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $504 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd… -
Alaska Dem Mary Peltola in car crash during final sprint for SenateAlaska Senate Democratic hopeful Mary Peltola suffered minor injuries in a car crash Saturday, temporarily sidelining her campaign, according to her team. Peltola, 53, was en route to the Alaska Federation of Natives Annual Banquet when… -
Blanche defends DoJ’s pre-emptive suit to block Alaska Senate results certificationUS attorney general calls CNN ‘crazy’ for suggesting Trump’s attempt to overturn election could lead to January 6 repeat Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s attorney general, lashed out during an interview on Sunday while defending the justice… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustains "minor injuries" in car accident, reschedules campaign eventsOctober 25, 2026 / 1:32 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustained "minor injuries" in a car accident, her campaign said Sunday. "Mary and her family sustained minor injuries but are in good… -
Texas early voting data trends, what analysts are focusing on in the Texas Senate raceCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
What analysts are watching in the Texas Senate race, CBS News political experts weigh inCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
"The Angle:" Illinois U.S. Senate speaks, experts weigh in on mayoral race and Chicago budgetDemocratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former Illinois Republican Party chair Don Tracy are running to replace U.S. Dick Durbin, and they have two very different visions for the future. Chris Tye recently talked to each. Also… -
NBA champ takes issue with Obama's pitch to Michigan voters amid hotly contested Senate raceThe former president showed up in Detroit on Saturday to stump for the state's Democratic ticket. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News Digital) Kyle Kuzma, a one-time NBA champion and current Milwaukee Bucks forward, pushed back on former President… -
CBS News political experts weigh in on Texas Senate race halfway through early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas With the early voting period halfway over and Election Day looming, the candidates for U.S. Senate in Texas continue to cross the state to get their supporters to the polls. Both the Democratic… -
Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions