Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
4%chance
Install
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)
The odds
14%December 31
- December 3114%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
December 31: 28% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 5 PM ETDecember 31: 26% → 20%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.1K | ||
| December 31 | 14% | ▼ 2 | 12¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: North Korea, South Korea
Search ›-
North Korea warns of "armed force conflict" after nuclear-powered U.S. submarine docks in South KoreaUpdated on: February 11, 2025 / 7:05 AM EST / CBS/AFP North Korea on Tuesday accused the United States of a "hostile military act" after a US Navy submarine docked in arch rival South Korea to replenish supplies. "We express grave concern… -
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China, South Korean news agency reportsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. SEOUL, South Korea —… -
South Korea proposes military talks with North Korea to calm rising border tensionsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. SEOUL, South Korea —… -
North Korea's Kim Jong Un touts ties, opens bridge with China on first trip in a yearUpdated on: October 25, 2026 / 3:59 AM EDT / CBS/AP North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China on Saturday, inaugurating a new bridge that connects the two countries and vowing to expand cooperation with his powerful neighbor. Kim's… -
North Korea says it will resume propaganda broadcasts across border into South KoreaFILE - A soldier stands at a North Korean military guard post next to loudspeakers, seen from Paju, South Korea, near the border with North Korea, on Feb. 26, 2026. Ahn Young-joon/AP hide caption SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea plans to… -
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China to inaugurate a new cross-border bridgeSEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China on Saturday, inaugurating a new bridge that connects the two countries and saying he hoped to expand cooperation with his powerful neighbor. Kim’s visit to China is his… -
North Korea's Kim Jong Un visits China via Dandong bridge, South Korean official saysNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in China on Saturday, visiting the neighbouring country via a newly opened bridge, a South Korean government official said. Kim arrived in Dandong through the New Yalu River Bridge connecting North… -
North Korea's Kim Jong Un Is In China, Claims South KoreaNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un is in China, his first visit to the country in a year, South Korea's government said Saturday. Kim's visit to China is his latest move in an increasingly assertive foreign policy as he seeks to align… -
North Korea Asks "Is South Korea Trying to Develop Its Own Nuclear Weapons?" as Two Koreas Clash at UN▲ North Korean Mission to the UN Amid escalating tensions between South and North Korea along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), a war of words between the two sides is intensifying on the diplomatic stage at the United Nations… -
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China, South Korean media reportNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited China for the first time in a year, according to South Korean media North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China, South Korean media report SEOUL, South Korea â South Korean media reported… - North Korea’s Kim crosses new bridge into China as trade ties warmNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the Chinese border city of Dandong on Saturday, Xinhua reported, crossing a newly opened bridge in a symbolic move seen as highlighting Beijing and Pyongyang’s push to expand trade ties. Kim was…
-
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China, South Korean media reportsPublished - October 24, 2026 12:51 pm IST - Seoul North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited China in his first visit to the country in a year, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. The agency cited an unidentified government…
Related markets
All asia & pacific ›Modi out by December 31, 2026?
3%chance
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
11%chance
Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?
15%chance▼ 1
Rahul Gandhi arrested by...?
34%December 31
- October 317%▲ 3
- December 3134%▲ 1
India strike on Pakistan by...?
8%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20268%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions