Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
4%chance
Install
Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?
The odds
15%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 28% on Oct 20, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 8 PM ET19% → 25%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | $32K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chief Election Commissioner of India, Gyanesh Kumar
Search ›-
Modi govt using every possible trick to protect Gyanesh Kumar: KhargeMr. Kharge also urged people to join the Dilli Chalo march on November 1 to join the public rally against "vote chori" at Ramlila Maidan Modi govt using every possible trick to protect Gyanesh Kumar: Kharge left Congress president… -
INDIA bloc will continue protests until Gyanesh Kumar resigns, says Praveen ChakravartyThe protest is not about the Special Intensive Revision, not about a State or a party, or who won or who lost. It is about the invaluable voting right of every Indian, which has been taken away, says the Congress Rajya Sabha Member… -
Hundreds demand removal of Gyanesh Kumar in anti-SIR protest in HyderabadPublished - October 25, 2026 08:12 pm IST - HYDERABAD Opposing the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and alleging illegal deletion of over 13 crore voters across the country in the process, hundreds from minority… -
Does This Video Show Tukaram Mundhe Supporting Protesters Demanding Gyanesh Kumar’s Resignation?Newschecker Newschecker.in is an independent fact-checking initiative of NC Media Networks Pvt. Ltd. We welcome our readers to send us claims to fact check. If you believe a story or statement deserves a fact check, or an error has been… -
Congress Expects 10 Lakh People at November 1 Rally Demanding CEC Gyanesh Kumar’s RemovalThe Congress expects at least 10 lakh people to attend an INDIA bloc rally at Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan on November 1, 2026, demanding the removal of Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Gyanesh Kumar over alleged irregularities in the Election… - Forward Bloc seeks Gyanesh Kumar’s resignationPublished - October 25, 2026 07:22 pm IST - MALAPPURAM All India Forward Bloc has demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, citing concerns over electoral transparency and voters’ rights. Addressing a meeting…
-
“Won’t leave streets until Gyanesh Kumar resigns”: CJP’s Saurav Das submits October 10 protest proposal to Delhi policeNew Delhi [India], October 7 : Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) chief spokesperson Saurav Das said the party has formally intimated the Delhi Police about the proposed protest at Jantar Mantar on October 10, stating that the demonstration would… -
Maharashtra SIR Row: Congress Accuses CEC Gyanesh Kumar Of Violating Election Rules, Alleges 40 Lakh Voter AdditionsMumbai, Oct 25: The Congress on Sunday accused Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar of violating rules during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, alleging that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance had come to power in Maharashtra… - Tell Modi to sack Gyanesh Kumar, protests will stop in 30 seconds: Rahul to tradersThe Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) has urged Mr. Gandhi to postpone the INDIA bloc's November 1 rally at Delhi's Ramlila Maidan until after November 10, warning that it could disrupt business worth ₹10,000 crore during the peak Diwali…
-
Amit Shah’s rare visit to Delhi Police hub comes amid protests over CEC Gyanesh KumarAmit Shah File picture Union home minister Amit Shah on Saturday visited Delhi Police headquarters and held meetings with the force’s top brass amid ongoing demonstrations by Opposition parties and student organisations demanding the… -
'Gyanesh Kumar’s Public Impeachment': INDIA Bloc Announces Unprecedented Protest Plan Against CEC & SIRIn an unprecedented political move, the opposition INDIA bloc has announced a symbolic “public impeachment proceeding" against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar on October 30. The decision marks a sharp escalation in the alliance’s… -
INDIA Bloc To Hold Mock Parliament In Delhi To Impeach CEC Gyanesh KumarThe opposition INDIA bloc is planning to organize a mock parliament at the Ashoka Hotel in New Delhi on October 30. During the event, proceedings will be held to symbolically pass a motion for the impeachment of Chief Election Commissioner…
Related markets
All asia & pacific ›Modi out by December 31, 2026?
3%chance
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
11%chance
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by...? (direct or indirect)
14%December 31
- December 3114%▼ 2
Rahul Gandhi arrested by...?
34%December 31
- October 317%▲ 3
- December 3134%▲ 1
India strike on Pakistan by...?
8%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20268%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions