Modi out by December 31, 2026?
3%chance
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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
The odds
4%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | $745K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: North Korea, Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pays unexpected visit to Chinese border city of DandongFirst published in 1903, South China Morning Post is Hong Kong's premier English language newspaper and has the city's most affluent and influential readership. With a reputation for authoritative, influential and independent reporting on… -
North Korea's Kim Jong Un touts ties, opens bridge with China on first trip in a yearUpdated on: October 25, 2026 / 3:59 AM EDT / CBS/AP North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China on Saturday, inaugurating a new bridge that connects the two countries and vowing to expand cooperation with his powerful neighbor. Kim's… -
Kim Jong Un crosses new bridge connecting North Korea and ChinaNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossed a newly opened bridge connecting North Korea and China on Saturday, marking Kim's first reported visit to China in over a year. Analysts say the bridge, and the visit, suggest deepening ties between… -
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China to inaugurate a new cross-border bridgeSEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited China on Saturday, inaugurating a new bridge that connects the two countries and saying he hoped to expand cooperation with his powerful neighbor. Kim’s visit to China is his… -
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits China, South Korean news agency reportsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. SEOUL, South Korea —… -
Kim Jong-un crosses over newly opened bridge into ChinaVisit by train over New Yalu River Bridge marks North Korean leader’s first known trip abroad in more than a year Kim Jong-un has travelled to China over a newly opened bridge marking the North Korean leader’s first known trip abroad in… -
Chinese bus factory that Kim Jong Un visited has strong ties with North Korea | NK NewsThe Chinese automobile factory that Kim Jong Un visited over the weekend had historical and economic ties with North Korea, NK News has found, including producing vehicles that were previously rebranded for the DPRK market. Huanghai… -
Kim Jong Un Tours Chinese Bus Factory, Climbs Aboard as UN Sanctions Bar Vehicle Supplies to North KoreaKim Jong Un spent Saturday in Dandong with Wang Huning. Learn which goods member states may not send and why outside monitoring ended in 2024. Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, toured a bus factory in Dandong, China, on Saturday and… -
Kim Jong-un's $100M mega-yacht with giant waterslides spotted off North KoreaKim Jong-un is enjoying himself on a colossal £75million mega-yacht complete with an enormous pool and waterslides - while his people go hungry. Satellite imagery examined by the BBC has uncovered a massive 263 ft. (80m) floating palace… -
Kim Jong Un's former classmates revealed what he was really like before he became North Korea's dictatorBack then he was known as 'Pak Un' and studied in Switzerland North Korea might be a fortress nation but its dictator Kim Jong Un did used to spend time out of the country for his education. Back in the day when Team America: World Police… -
North Korea's Kim Jong Un returns from China after war memorial visit, state media saysNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un returned to his country on Sunday after visiting a historic Korean War memorial in the Chinese border city of Dandong, North Korean state media reported. Kim visited... -October 24, 2026 at 05:50 pm EDT… -
China-North Korea relations: Kim Jong Un arrived in Dandong via newly opened bridge, says reportNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reportedly made an unannounced visit to China. South Korean media says Mr Kim crossed via a newly opened border bridge and met Premier Li Qiang in the Chinese border city of Dandong. North Korean leader…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions