Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout
The odds
364,790median
225,000425,000
Median 364,790Middle half 317,957 – 390,595
How the odds have moved
Median: 355,492 on Oct 20, 364,790 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <250K | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $965 | ||
| 250K-275K | 4% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | $1.4K |
| 275K-300K | 10% | 6¢ | 13¢ | $7.75 | $1.2K | |
| 300K-325K | 16% | 14¢ | 17¢ | $5.75 | $2.3K | |
| 325K-350K | 9% | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.3K | |
| 350K-375K | 19% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | $3.8K |
| 375K-400K | 28% | ▲ 7 | 26¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $3.2K |
| 400K+ | 15% | ▼ 2 | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.92 | $3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Dakota Senate
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Mike Rounds Leads in South Dakota Senate RaceA new KELOLAND News/Emerson College poll in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Brian Bengs (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 42%. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling… -
Mike Rounds Appears Safe in South Dakota Senate RaceA new Quantus Insights poll in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Brian Bengs (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 57% to 36%. South Dakota Senate Race Mike Rounds (R) 57% Brian Bengs (I) 36% Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±4.1% A… -
Democrat Aaron Matson shares vision for SD District 11SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO)-- Election day is right around the corner, and KELOLAND News interviewed several Sioux Falls candidates all vying to be South Dakota's next batch of lawmakers. Republican Chris Karr, and Democrat Aaron Matson are… -
Ranchers Say Trump’s Beef Imports Have GOP Senator Mike Rounds ‘Treading Water’ In South DakotaPresident Donald Trump’s foreign beef imports have backfired on Republican South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds’ reelection campaign, South Dakota cattle ranchers told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Rounds faces a competitive race against… -
Unusually High Number Of Independent Candidates Seek South Dakota Legislative SeatsThe South Dakota Senate meets on Feb. 11, 2026, at the Capitol in Pierre. The Nov. 3 general election could be an independents’ day of sorts for South Dakota. In addition to independent Brian Bengs challenging incumbent Republican U.S…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions