Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Iowa Senate Election: Turnout
The odds
1.42Mmedian
1.15M1.65M
Median 1.42MMiddle half 1.32M – 1.49M
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.45M on Oct 20, 1.42M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.2M | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $8.7K |
| 1.2M-1.25M | 14% | ▲ 9 | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.99 | $2.4K |
| 1.25M-1.3M | 5% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | $1.3K |
| 1.3M-1.35M | 8% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $1.8K |
| 1.35M-1.4M | 15% | ▲ 4 | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | $2K |
| 1.4M-1.45M | 14% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | $3.5K |
| 1.45M-1.5M | 23% | ▲ 3 | 22¢ | 26¢ | $3.88 | $4.8K |
| 1.5M-1.55M | 6% | ▼ 10 | 1¢ | 12¢ | $8.62 | $1.8K |
| 1.55M-1.6M | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | $1.4K | |
| 1.6M+ | 9% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 11¢ | $8.93 | $1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iowa Senate
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Live blog: Trump heads to Mississippi to rally for GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-SmithMorning Rundown: Israel’s first election since Oct. 7 attacks, key midterm ballot measures to watch, and Chris Brown sentenced over London nightclub brawl Vice President JD Vance will travel to Montana and Kansas to stump for Republican… -
Ashley Hinson Rips ‘Ridiculous’ Vance Attack on GOP Critics of Ramaswamy AdOct 25, 2026 at 03:08 PM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 04:27 PM EDT Republican Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson criticized Vice President JD Vance over his response to GOP criticism of Vivek Ramaswamy’s controversial campaign ad featuring the… -
Meet the candidates running for Iowa Senate District 47Republican State Sen. Scott Webster has highlighted tax cuts and reduced regulations in his run for reelection, and physician and school board member Democrat Nikhil Wagle has called for bolstering public education and healthcare access in… -
ABC’s ‘This Week’ speaks with Hinson, Turek ahead of midtermsIowa (ABC) - Republican Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Democratic Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek spoke with Jon Karl for ABC’s “This Week.” Watch Hinson’s full interview: Watch Turek’s full ... Iowa (ABC) - Republican Iowa Senate… -
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Close Up: Trump visits Sioux City; Senate candidates talk costsPresident Trump visits Sioux City ahead of Election Day, while Iowa Senate candidates Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek present competing plans to address rising costs. President Trump visits Sioux City ahead of Election Day, while Iowa Senate… -
Video Midterm blitz across battleground statesABC News’ Steve Portnoy breaks down the latest regarding battleground states in the midterm election with only nine days left. Midterm blitz across battleground states ABC News’ Steve Portnoy breaks down the latest regarding battleground… -
Video Obama, Trump rally in battleground state MichiganThe former and current presidents campaigned for their respective party's candidates in the critical Michigan Senate race. Obama, Trump rally in battleground state Michigan The former and current presidents campaigned for their respective… -
Moldovan PM arrives in Kyiv on working visitMoldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan arrived in the Ukrainian capital for a working visit on Monday 26 October. Source: Moldovan media outlet Newsmaker, citing a statement by the country's government, as reported by European Pravda… -
Donald Trump Brings 9/11 Into Michigan Senate Race With Attack on Abdul El-SayedPresident Donald Trump used a Sunday rally in Port Huron to link the Michigan Senate race to the September 11 attacks. He leveled unsubstantiated accusations against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed while boosting Republican nominee Mike Rogers… -
President Donald Trump is coming to Daytona Beach for a Oct. 30 rallyPresident Donald Trump will rally Republicans in Daytona Beach on Oct. 30, following a campaign stop in southwest Florida. The venue remains unknown. Around 90,000 properties are without power after Scotland and north England is battered… -
Iowa Senate Candidates Rep. Ashley Hinson & Josh Turek and Gov. Wes Moore, Sunday on “This Week” with Co-anchor Jonathan KarlThis is a listing for 'This Week' airing Sunday, October 25, 2026. IOWA SENATE CANDIDATES REP. ASHLEY HINSON & JOSH TUREK AND GOV. WES MOORE, SUNDAY ON “THIS WEEK” WITH CO-ANCHOR JONATHAN KARL (R) Iowa Senate Nominee (D) Iowa Senate…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions