Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Kansas Senate Election: Turnout
The odds
1.17Mmedian
700,0001.30M
Median 1.17MMiddle half 1.10M – 1.23M
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.13M on Oct 20, 1.17M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <800K | 4% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | $1.3K |
| 800K-900K | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $288 | |
| 900K-1M | 11% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $283 |
| 1M-1.1M | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $977 |
| 1.1M-1.2M | 40% | ▼ 2 | 30¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | $7.4K |
| 1.2M+ | 36% | ▼ 9 | 31¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | $4.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kansas Senate
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The Church Abuse Allegations Shaking Kansas Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 12:43 PM EDT Allegations that the Democratic candidate failed to effectively investigate alleged sexual assaults targeting children more than 20 years ago have become a focal point in the closing weeks of the Kansas Senate… -
Politico Posts Love Letter to 'Dust Bunny' Democrat Opposition Research Hero in KansasYou can just feel the love oozing out of almost every sentence in a Politico story about an opposition research dirt digger. The party? Democrat of course. Anyone who is familiar with the over-the-top biases of Politico would know there is… -
Kansas Senate Shock Looms As Democrat Presses Historic RunKansas has spent more than nine decades without sending a Democrat to the US Senate. That streak is suddenly in jeopardy. In a state that Donald Trump carried by 16 points just two years ago, Republicans are being forced to defend a seat… -
Examining how increased advance voting benefits Kansas candidates in U.S. Senate raceFrom churches to political rallies, there's a concerted effort to get more Kansans to vote. Pastors from several faiths announced plans Friday to hold marches to the polls on Halloween. The push comes as the Kansas Senate race between… -
Marshall, Hamilton clash in heated Kansas Senate debateCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Marshall, Hamilton… - Kansas Senate candidates clash on Trump agenda and Iran war"Control of the Senate goes through Kansas," said Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in the final Kansas Senate debate Wednesday night, hosted by Nexstar Media. Kansas Senate candidates clash on Trump agenda and Iran war “Control of the Senate…
- Trump says NFL 'could've probably postponed' Paris game as France protests stretch police thinTrump DOJ charges ex-FBI officials who briefed Congress on Hunter Biden laptop and election interference The Justice Department has charged two former FBI officials with making false statements about Hunter Biden's laptop. LeBron James was…
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Kansas Senate candidates debate trans athletes issue, answer how many genders there areFox News Kansas Senate candidates debate trans athletes issue, answer how many genders there are Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton answered questions on transgender athletes in women's sports… -
Kansas Senate Rivals Clash Over Trump, AI Regulation, And Gender In Fiery Midterm DebateBy Ewan Scott | Oct 22, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics The hourlong debate came less than two weeks before Election Day, with Marshall seeking a second term and Hamilton, a longtime pastor, attempting to become the first… - Johnson County Voting Machine Complaint Sparks DisputeLaura Owen says she went to cast her ballot at the Lenexa City Center Library and watched her selections keep sliding toward the Democratic column, including a repeated switch away from Republican Sen. Roger Marshall toward his opponent…
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Elections Forecaster Shifts 19 More House Races In Democrats’ FavorA major elections forecaster shifted 19 House races in the Democrats’ favor Friday, including Republican-held seats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted some races from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up” and others from “Solid… - Vance Heads to Topeka Monday as Kansas Senate Race Turns Into a Toss-UpVice President JD Vance is headed back to Kansas, this time landing in Topeka on Monday, Oct. 26, for a midterm rally meant to shore up support for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Doors open at 2 p.m. at HME Inc.-Haas Group, 2828 NW Button…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions