Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Kentucky Senate Election: Turnout
The odds
1.60Mmedian
1.10M1.90M
Median 1.60MMiddle half 1.46M – 1.73M
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.58M on Oct 20, 1.60M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.2M | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | $2.5K |
| 1.2M-1.3M | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $503 | |
| 1.3M-1.4M | 9% | ▼ 3 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $1.5K |
| 1.4M-1.5M | 14% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $1.2K |
| 1.5M-1.6M | 19% | ▲ 6 | 18¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $2.7K |
| 1.6M-1.7M | 19% | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $3.1K | |
| 1.7M-1.8M | 24% | ▲ 6 | 25¢ | 27¢ | $3.72 | $2K |
| 1.8M+ | 7% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kentucky Senate
Search ›- Kentucky US Senate candidates on key issues in 2026 midterm electionU.S. Senate | U.S. House | Kentucky Senate | Kentucky House | Louisville mayor | Louisville Metro Council | Jefferson County Board of Education | Jefferson County sheriff | Jefferson County offices | Jefferson County District Court judges…
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Iran, gas, AI: Barr and Booker spar in the only TV debate for Kentucky Senate this yearThe Paducah Sun Charles Booker, right, speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington on Monday. Andy Barr, R-Ky, speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington on Monday. Charles Booker speaks during a debate at the WKYT… -
Kentucky Senate candidates intensify campaigns ahead of Election DayWith Election Day just two weeks away, Senate candidates Andy Barr and Charles Booker are ramping up their campaigns with ads, endorsements, and public appearances to sway Kentucky voters. Fresh off Monday night's contentious debate, both… - Musk-backed PACs have spent over $400 million on advertisingLast week, Elon Musk became the largest individual political donor in modern U.S. history. His largest donations have gone to Republican-aligned PACs, including the Senate Leadership Fund PAC, America PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund…
- Fact✓Check | Barr's $2,800 tax claim in Kentucky Senate debateLEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) - A $2,800 figure dominated discussion of taxes during last night’s Kentucky U.S. Senate debate between Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker. Barr said the 2017 Trump tax law gave the “average Kentucky…
- Fact✓Check | Barr, Booker spar over tariffs and bourbon ahead of Kentucky Senate raceLEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) - Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are both making arguments about Sen. Mitch McConnell’s trade record and tariffs as they compete for his Senate seat. McConnell is Kentucky’s longest-serving senator…
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Michael Lee McGregorThe Paducah Sun There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language. - To view our latest e-Edition click the image on the left. Iran, gas, AI: Barr and Booker spar in… -
Charles Booker speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington, Ky., on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026.The Paducah Sun Charles Booker speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington on Monday. Iran, gas, AI: Barr and Booker spar in the only TV debate for Kentucky Senate this year In the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell… - Andy Barr, R-Ky, speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington, Ky., on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026.The Paducah Sun Andy Barr, R-Ky, speaks during a debate at the WKYT studios in Lexington on Monday. Iran, gas, AI: Barr and Booker spar in the only TV debate for Kentucky Senate this year In the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell…
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Rand Paul visits ethanol plant to talk E15 fuel, support for McCracken data centerRoughly two weeks ahead of the midterm election, Sen. Rand Paul visited Commonwealth Agri-Energy ethanol plant on Monday to speak with Kentucky farmers. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. HOPKINSVILLE â Roughly two weeks ahead of the midterm… - Constitutional amendment on KY ballot could limit governor’s powersKentucky voters will be able to vote on a constitutional amendment that would limit the governorâs powers, specifically for pardons and commuting sentences, in this year's midterm election set for Nov. 3. Kentucky voters will be able to…
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'Scumbag': Ohio MAGA candidate condemned for 'loathsome and repugnant' political adOhio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is in hot water after an ad was released on his behalf using the estranged mother of his opponent, Amy Acton — who has been accused of covering up for her daughter's sexual abuser — and using…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions