Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $153 today · $91.3K traded · $6.7K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

95%Anthropic
  • Anthropic95%
  • OpenAI2%
  • Google1%▼ 2
  • Meta1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
6 more
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Microsoft<1%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 91% on Oct 20, 95% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Anthropic 95% 95¢ 98¢ $1.02 $47.1K
OpenAI 2% 1¢ 4¢ $27.78 $14.7K
Google 1% ▼ 2 0¢ 2¢ $47.62 $6.9K
Meta 1% 0¢ 1¢ $83.33 $5.2K
Moonshot <1% 0¢ 1¢ $3.3K
Alibaba <1% 1¢ $2.3K
Z.ai <1% 0¢ $372
SpaceXAI <1% 0¢ $3.1K
DeepSeek <1% 0¢ $1.6K
Xiaomi <1% 0¢ $511
MiniMax <1% 0¢ $1.2K
Nvidia <1% 0¢ $464
ByteDance <1% 0¢ $822
Baidu <1% 0¢ $335
Amazon <1% 0¢ $660
Mistral <1% 0¢ $1.5K
Meituan <1% 0¢ $675
Microsoft <1% 0¢ $509

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI Agent

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  • GitHub’s former CEO launched a competing platform for AI agents.The Verge · 20 h agoThomas Dohmke has officially launched Entire after teasing the decentralized coding platform in July. Similar to GitHub, developers can use the platform to host and review code, but it’s designed specifically to work with AI agents…
  • The RealReal won’t let AI agents hog designer clothingThe Verge · 22 h agoPrevious reporting by The Verge found that Meta’s Muse could be used to effectively block other shoppers from purchasing items for hours. The RealReal, a secondhand luxury fashion consignment retailer, said it’s updating its bot defense…
  • AI Agents Found a Way Into Anthropic's Business Systems in Under 12 HoursDecrypt · 16 h agoThe way in was not Claude, Anthropic's AI assistant, but third-party administrative and sales software, the kind of programs companies use to track customers and manage staff. Many other companies use the same software. The startup…
  • US banks scramble to contain risks from rogue AI agentsFox News · 27 h agoKurt 'CyberGuy' Knutsson joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the threat of rogue AI agents targeting bank accounts and also break down AI-enabled romance scams, detailing a case where a woman was scammed out of $10,000. US banks…
  • Meet the AI Agents Trying to Be Real-Life JournalistsWIRED · 30 h agoJayden, Sam, and Zack are eagerly pitching editors on reported stories and investigative features. The catch? They're all AI agents. Jayden is both a wannabe reporter and a bot I’d started emailing with it after asking editors I know…
  • AI agent is denying seniors healthcare across several states — what recipients need to knowNew York Post · 24 h agoSeniors just got another reason to hate AI. The government is piloting a federal program that uses artificial intelligence to help decide what care to approve or deny. Medicare is included in the test program — dubbed the Wasteful and…
  • Virtual biotech deploys 37,000 AI agents across drug discoveryBIOENGINEER.ORG · 14 h agoA Stanford-developed virtual biotech used 37,000 AI agents to analyze 50,000 trials, identify markers linked to drug success and design a lung-cancer therapy strategy later pursued independently by a pharmaceutical company.
  • Building AI Agents That Ask Before They ActDEV Community · 16 h agoI am tired of seeing "autonomous" AI agents that are anything but. If you have spent much time building with LLMs lately, you have seen the same pattern. A developer gives an agent a tool, a goal, and a loop. The agent starts executing…
  • Meta’s Muse And The ‘Cutification’ Of AI AgentsForbes · 17 h agoWhy are Meta and other technology companies investing time and money in cute mascots in the middle of an AI race? Why not just focus on improving the technology? The answer is simple: public trust in big tech has collapsed. Only 20% of…
  • Why is everyone suddenly putting AI agents in a box?DEV Community · 18 h agoA year ago, AI coding tools suggested code. You read it and decided whether to run it. Now they run it. They install packages, execute tests, call APIs and open pull requests, while reading text from strangers: README files, GitHub issues…
  • Hermes Skills Just Got Easier: One-Command Installation for AI Agent SetupDEV Community · 17 h agoGetting started with AI agent skills shouldn't require navigating complex installation procedures, multiple configuration files, or lengthy documentation deep-dives. Yet that's often the reality when adopting open-source AI tools. The…
  • The AI Agent Harness Matters More Than the ModelDEV Community · 15 h agoA language model is a program that predicts the next token. That's the honest, unglamorous description. On its own it can't send an email, delete a file or place a call. It produces text. In the explainer, Cipher calls it a "brain in a…

Related markets

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

88%Google
  • Google88%▲ 3
  • Anthropic10%▲ 2
  • Meta<1%
18 more
  • OpenAI<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions