Which company has the best AI Agent end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $146 today · $23.9K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 79 min ago

The odds

73%Anthropic

Anthropic73%▲ 1
OpenAI13%
Alibaba5%▲ 1
Google4%▼ 1
SpaceXAI2%▲ 1
DeepSeek1%
Moonshot1%
MiniMax1%
ByteDance1%
Baidu1%
Amazon1%
Xiaomi<1%

7 more

Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Microsoft<1%
Tencent<1%
Z.ai<1%
Meta<1%
Nvidia<1%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 71% on Oct 20, 73% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	73%	▲ 1	73¢	77¢	$1.30	$10.3K
OpenAI	13%		13¢	15¢	$6.67	$5.4K
Alibaba	5%	▲ 1	0¢	10¢	$9.62	$647
Google	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$13.51	$696
SpaceXAI	2%	▲ 1	0¢	5¢	$20.00	$859
DeepSeek	1%		0¢	3¢	$33.33	$497
Moonshot	1%		0¢	1¢		$506
MiniMax	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$434
ByteDance	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$399
Baidu	1%		0¢	1¢		$239
Amazon	1%		0¢	1¢		$259
Xiaomi	<1%		0¢	1¢		$532
Mistral	<1%		0¢	1¢		$239
Meituan	<1%		0¢	1¢		$239
Microsoft	<1%		0¢	1¢		$239
Tencent	<1%		0¢	1¢		$540
Z.ai	<1%		0¢	1¢		$706
Meta	<1%		0¢	1¢		$728
Nvidia	<1%		0¢	0¢		$461

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI Agent

Search ›

The RealReal won’t let AI agents hog designer clothingThe Verge · 21 h agoPrevious reporting by The Verge found that Meta’s Muse could be used to effectively block other shoppers from purchasing items for hours. The RealReal, a secondhand luxury fashion consignment retailer, said it’s updating its bot defense…
GitHub’s former CEO launched a competing platform for AI agents.The Verge · 19 h agoThomas Dohmke has officially launched Entire after teasing the decentralized coding platform in July. Similar to GitHub, developers can use the platform to host and review code, but it’s designed specifically to work with AI agents…
US banks scramble to contain risks from rogue AI agentsFox News · 26 h agoKurt 'CyberGuy' Knutsson joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the threat of rogue AI agents targeting bank accounts and also break down AI-enabled romance scams, detailing a case where a woman was scammed out of $10,000. US banks…
AI Agents Found a Way Into Anthropic's Business Systems in Under 12 HoursDecrypt · 15 h agoThe way in was not Claude, Anthropic's AI assistant, but third-party administrative and sales software, the kind of programs companies use to track customers and manage staff. Many other companies use the same software. The startup…
Meet the AI Agents Trying to Be Real-Life JournalistsWIRED · 29 h agoJayden, Sam, and Zack are eagerly pitching editors on reported stories and investigative features. The catch? They're all AI agents. Jayden is both a wannabe reporter and a bot Iâd started emailing with it after asking editors I know…
AI agent is denying seniors healthcare across several states — what recipients need to knowNew York Post · 23 h agoSeniors just got another reason to hate AI. The government is piloting a federal program that uses artificial intelligence to help decide what care to approve or deny. Medicare is included in the test program — dubbed the Wasteful and…
Here are the top AI agents that can live in your text messagesTechCrunch · 3 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Rather than downloading another app, a growing number of agents can simply be texted like an ordinary person. You text it what you need, and it can remember context…
Should AI Agents Be Making Financial Decisions? It Depends.Newsweek · 4 days agoOct 23, 2026 at 05:12 PM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 05:21 PM EDT Editor's note: This is AI Impact, Newsweek's weekly newsletter where each week, we will explore how business leaders are unlocking real value through artificial intelligence. Our…
US banks scramble to control their AI agent activityFox News · 4 days agoFOX Business correspondent Darren Botelho has the latest on artificial intelligence reportedly acting independently on behalf of bank customers as companies attempt to control their AI models on 'Special Report.' US banks scramble to…
The race to tell humans from AI agentssemafor.com · 4 days agoThe future of agentic commerce hinges on the ability to know whether it’s a human or an AI agent that’s making a purchase, and the tools to do that are arriving fast. Proof-of-human technology, which can let a person vouch for the AI…
Automate Your Marketing Workflow With AI AgentsDEV Community · 25 h agoDigital marketing involves a surprising amount of repetitive work. Before launching a campaign, you research competitors, analyze keywords, study customer reviews, brainstorm content ideas, write briefs, prepare creatives, and build…
How Enterprise AI Agents Earn AutonomyForbes · 24 h agoSwapnil Upganlawar is a senior manager in generative AI at Amazon Web Services (AWS). Two experiences have shaped how I think about evaluating AI systems, especially in understanding how much responsibility to give an AI agent. The first…

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

96%Anthropic

Anthropic96%
OpenAI2%
Google1%▼ 2

15 more

Meta1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Z.ai<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Xiaomi<1%
MiniMax<1%
Nvidia<1%
ByteDance<1%
Baidu<1%
Amazon<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

56%Anthropic

Anthropic56%▲ 3
Google34%▼ 3
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta2%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%Google

Google89%▲ 3
Anthropic9%▼ 1
Meta<1%

18 more

OpenAI<1%▼ 1
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Nov 26, 2026even chance by

October 3116%▼ 2
November 1533%▼ 4
November 3059%▲ 3

2 more

December 1575%▼ 2
December 3180%▼ 7

Tech › AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 12, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202615%
December 31, 202752%▲ 2

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.26Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T84%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$23.9K

Today$146

This week$1.6K

At stake$1.6K

In the news143 headlines today, 1,732 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company250.24+0.46%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company100.01−0.24%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.61−0.31%
GOOGLGOOGL · about the company
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company623.80−1.07%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company529.86−0.51%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA · about the company216.87+0.40%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions