Hamilton Mayoral Election

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes today 11:59 PM ET · $678 today · $24.7K traded · $4.2K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

63%Keanin Loomis

Keanin Loomis63%▲ 21
Andrea Horwath18%▼ 4
Rob Cooper12%▼ 3
Sasha Austin2%▼ 1
Scarlett Gillespie2%
Pamela Mitchell<1%
Ejaz Butt<1%
Paul Fromm<1%
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan<1%

How the odds have moved

Keanin Loomis: 59% on Oct 20, 63% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 2 AM ETKeanin Loomis: 55% → 63%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 21, 7 PM ETKeanin Loomis: 65% → 60%
- Mayoral candidate overview: Keanin LoomisThe Silhouette · 4 days ago
- Mayoral candidate overview: Rob CooperThe Silhouette · 5 days ago
- Opinion | How do we decide which Hamilton mayoral candidates get coverage?The Hamilton Spectator · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Keanin Loomis	63%	▲ 21	59¢	67¢	$1.49	$11.8K
Andrea Horwath	18%	▼ 4	14¢	21¢	$4.76	$5K
Rob Cooper	12%	▼ 3	10¢	14¢	$7.25	$1.5K
Sasha Austin	2%	▼ 1	1¢	4¢	$27.03	$2.3K
Scarlett Gillespie	2%		0¢	3¢	$33.33	$1.9K
Pamela Mitchell	<1%		0¢	1¢		$648
Ejaz Butt	<1%			0¢		$446
Paul Fromm	<1%			0¢		$757
Nathalie Xian Yi Yan	<1%			0¢		$461

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Hamilton Mayoral, Keanin Loomis, Andrea Horwath

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Platform comparison: Where do your leading Hamilton mayoral candidates stand?The Hamilton Spectator · 45 h agoHere’s where Keanin Loomis, Andrea Horwath and Rob Cooper land on key issues in the leadup to the Oct. 26 municipal election. Mayoral candidates Keanin Loomis, Rob Cooper and Andrea Horwath. Where do the front-runners in the race for…
What’s going in former Bay at Lime Ridge? + Cleveland-Cliffs owner demands union co-operation + HHS surgery jobs slashed: Top Hamilton headlines this weekThe Hamilton Spectator · 45 h agoMembers of the Hamilton Police Service emergency response unit entertain kids at McMaster Children’s Hospital Thursday night during their annual Halloween party. Batman attempts to catch the Joker as they both rappel down the front of the…
Hamilton Mayor Horwath’s tariff-response plan heads to city council after gaining GIC supportCHCH · 3 days agoOne person injured in Haldimand County shooting Ridge Road closures in Hamilton begin Monday Brad Stapleton ends Hamilton Ward 9 campaign Inquest into death of Regis Korchinski-Paquet set to continue Increased police presence expected in…
Scarlett Gillespie says she is ‘in it to win it.’ How will she affect the outcome of the mayoral race?The Hamilton Spectator · 3 days agoMcMaster political scientist Peter Graefe says in a tight three-way race, a higher vote share for a candidate like Gillespie could be “really significant” to the outcome. Scarlett Gillespie is one of 13 mayoral candidates who will appear…
Reevely: Horwath pushes herself to the forefront in last Ontario leaders' debateOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoIn their last big chance to make their case to Ontario’s voters before next month’s election, in Sunday night’s provincial leaders’ debate, Kathleen Wynne was cerebral, Doug Ford was all gut, and Andrea Horwath pounded them both from an…
Reevely: In northern-issues debate, Ford turns his sights on NDP's HorwathOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoAndrea Horwath is a two-faced environmentalist nutbar, Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford charged Friday, abruptly changing the direction of his campaign to lead Ontario. Until now, Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne and her party’s…
Denley: The real losers in the debate: OntariansOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoWell, that was depressing. The Ontario election’s first leadership debate was more like an episode of the Jerry Springer show than a serious political discussion. Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath spent much of the evening…
Kathleen-Wynne | Ottawa CitizenOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoOttawa South MPP John Fraser has been chosen by his colleagues to be the Ontario Liberal party’s interim leader, marking the second time he will serve in that capacity. Five days before the provincial election, with his most hated rival…
Reevely: Clearing the lowest of bars, Horwath rises above the squabble in provincial leaders' debateOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoIf Andrea Horwath’s goal in Monday night’s provincial leaders’ debate was to show that she can rise above the squabbling between Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne and Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford, they handed that win right to…
Reevely: Firing up Liberals in Ottawa, Wynne compares Ford to Mike HarrisOttawa Citizen · 2 days agoLiberals are in an existential fight for the future of Ontario, leader Kathleen Wynne told her Ottawa team Wednesday night. Four years ago, in the first hours of an uphill campaign, Wynne hit Ottawa for an evening rally. It was sunny and…
Hamilton Mayor Jeff Martin won’t seek third term in 2027New Jersey Globe · 4 days agoThe 42-year-old Democrat, who ousted a Republican incumbent in 2019, will leave office after eight years leading one of Mercer County’s largest municipalities By David Wildstein, October 22 2026 1:45 pm Hamilton Township Mayor Jeff Martin…
Stelco owner defends layoffs + Hamilton is Home — to zombies! + Top Spectator headlines todayThe Hamilton Spectator · 4 days agoHere is what’s happening in Hamilton and the surrounding area this morning with your top news, weather and traffic. Expect a warm and mostly sunny day today. Environment Canada is forecasting a high of 18 C. Find the latest provincial road…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 26, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$24.7K

Today$678

This week$3K

At stake$4.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The 2026 Hamilton, ON mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Hamilton as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Hamilton.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions