Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- November 30>99%▲ 11
- December 31>99%▲ 7
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Will Russia capture Svitle by...?
The odds
5%October 31
- October 315%▼ 7
How the odds have moved
October 31: 17% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 10 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → 5%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETOctober 31: 14% → 19%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | <1% | ▼ 11 | 0¢ | $32K | ||
| October 31 | 5% | ▼ 7 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $55.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the… -
Zelensky celebrates as Ukraine hits Putin's war factory with British missile and Starlink returnsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is toasting a successful victory after his forceslanded a direct hit on Putin’s war factory using British missiles, according to reports. Video shared from the battlefield appears to show a major… -
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised… -
Ella Baron on Trump’s admiration for Putin – cartoonContinue reading... Ella Baron on Trump’s admiration for Putin – cartoon -
Zelensky: Russia launches 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles and nearly 2,300 attack drones at Ukraine in one weekPresident Volodymyr Zelensky reported this on Facebook, according to Ukrinform. “This week alone, Russia has fired approximately 1,600 guided bombs, 48 missiles of various types—including ballistic missiles—and nearly 2,300 attack drones… -
Dominican men fighting for Russia were duped into fighting Ukraine war, beg for rescueThree men from the Dominican Republic are begging to be rescued from Russia, where they claimed they were lured by false promises of jobs — and then sent to the battlefield in the war with Ukraine. “We were deceived, contrary to what is… -
Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits shopping center in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, locals sayHelp us keep bringing the truth to light, even when Russia turns the lights out. A massive swarm of Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian border region of Belgorod overnight on Oct. 25, according to local officials and eyewitness footage… -
Zelensky: Energy truce could signal Russia’s readiness to end warUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made this statement in an interview with Alla Mazur, host of “TSN.Tyzhden,” according to Ukrinform. “An energy ceasefire as a first step. I believe this is a signal,” Zelensky said. He noted that… -
Russia demands Trump 'assassinate' Zelensky as WW3 fears explodeThe Kremlin today made a sinister call for Donald Trump to order the assassination of Volodymyr Zelensky. Close Putin crony Dmitry Medvedev told the US president: “American history itself offers a solution. “All he has to do is summon the… -
Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv targets Russian-occupied Crimea as UK and France conduct joint military exerciseCrimea strikes cause water and power cuts; war game designed to show how Nato countries could be defended amid fears of Russian aggression. What we know on day 1,705A Ukrainian attack led to water and power cuts in occupied Crimea on…
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All russia & ukraine ›Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
Oct 19, 2026even chance by
- October 17<1%▼ 4
- October 2093%▲ 9
- October 2193%▲ 13
10 more
- October 2293%▲ 7
- October 2393%▲ 14
- October 2493%▲ 16
- October 2593%▲ 14
- October 2693%▼ 3
- October 2793%▲ 6
- October 2893%▲ 3
- October 2993%▼ 4
- October 3093%▲ 2
- October 3193%▲ 4
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
16%December 31
- October 312%
- November 157%
- November 3010%▼ 3
1 more
- December 3116%▼ 3
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
10%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%▼ 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Dec 31, 2027even chance by
- January 31, 202726%▲ 1
- February 28, 202730%▼ 1
- March 31, 202734%▼ 2
12 more
- April 30, 202742%▼ 1
- May 31, 202745%▼ 1
- June 30, 202745%▼ 3
- July 31, 202745%▼ 1
- August 31, 202745%▲ 2
- September 30, 202745%▼ 1
- October 3145%
- October 31, 202745%▼ 1
- November 30, 202745%
- November 3045%▲ 1
- December 3145%▼ 1
- December 31, 202771%▲ 1
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
77%China
- China77%▼ 1
- No meeting by December 3117%▲ 2
- Gulf country2%▲ 1
12 more
- Russia1%▲ 1
- Other1%
- United States1%
- Turkey<1%
- Belarus<1%
- Finland<1%
- Switzerland<1%
- South Korea<1%
- Japan<1%
- Australia<1%
- Other EU country<1%
- Ukraine<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions