Another NATO article 4 by...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31 · $127 today · $189K traded · $9.4K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

26%December 31

October 313%
December 3126%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

October 31: 1% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
August 31	<1%			0¢		$146K
October 31	3%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	$26.6K
December 31	26%	▼ 3	25¢	26¢	$3.85	$16.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: NATO

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"Glaring gaps" in U.K.'s Arctic defense leave it and NATO open to Russian attacks, British lawmakers sayCBS News · 3 days agoOctober 22, 2026 / 10:19 AM EDT / CBS News The group urged the British government to "urgently address" gaps in maritime forces, particularly with the U.S. acting "more unilaterally in the region." "This is a demanding, hostile…
NATO's nuke drills before Kaliningrad 'war' | VideosHindustan Times · 28 h agoFrance and the United Kingdom conducted their first-ever joint airborne nuclear-strike exercise amid rising tensions with Russia, highlighting closer coordination between the two European nuclear powers. According to Agence France-Presse…
Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF (NATO)Yahoo Finance · 27 h agoStock Price, News, Quote & History Yahoo! Finance Canada Oops, something went wrong Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF (NATO) Themes Transatlantic Defense ETF Overview Themes ETF Trust / Industrials The index is designed to provide exposure…
Poland Considers NATO Nuclear Sharing and France's Nuclear UmbrellaВоенное дело · 16 h agoPoland Considers Hosting US and French Nuclear Weapons Военное дело Poland Considers NATO Nuclear Sharing and France's Nuclear Umbrella Poland is considering hosting US and French nuclear weapons while seeking NATO nuclear sharing…
Ukraine, NATO, and War TerminationCouncil on Foreign Relations · 45 h agoThe United States has an unquestionable interest in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Equally imperative, argue Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Eric Ciaramella and Eric Green, is safeguarding Ukraine’s postwar sovereignty and…
NATO Must Abandon 'Containment' of Russia to Resume Dialogue - Russian Foreign MinistrySputnik International · 2 h agoMOSCOW (Sputnik) - Dialogue with NATO cannot be revived as long as the alliance persists in its policy of "containing" Russia, Natalia Fuzhenkova, deputy head of the Russian delegation and Russia's deputy permanent representative to the UN…
Russia and Ukraine are getting 'closer to a resolution': US ambassador to NATOFox News · 4 days agoU.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker discusses the latest developments in the United States' role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on 'America Reports.' ... Russia and Ukraine are getting 'closer to a resolution': US ambassador to NATO U.S…
Russia-Ukraine conflict 'will not be resolved on the battlefield': US ambassador to NATOFox News · 4 days agoU.S. ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker discusses the latest on the United States' role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on 'America Reports.' Russia-Ukraine conflict 'will not be resolved on the battlefield': US ambassador to NATO U.S…
U.S. Senator Slammed for Criticizing Canadian PM Carney, “Turkey Is In NATO Dummy”@2paragraphs · 15 h agoToday, President @RTErdogan and I launched a new Canada-Türkiye Strategic Partnership to create massive new opportunities for our peoples. Energy. Mining. Climate. Defence. Security. We’re deepening our ties to confront shared threats and…
Russia Warns NATO Could Use New Zealand to Monitor Its Adversaries in PacificSputnik International · 2 h agoMOSCOW (Sputnik) - New Zealand is of interest to NATO as a potential location for deploying surveillance in the Pacific Ocean, as well as for space launches, Russian Ambassador to Wellington Stanislav Krans told Sputnik. In July of this…
Ukraine Joins NATO Procurement Partnership, Opens Defence Contracts To Ukrainian CompaniesFree Press Journal · 32 h agoUkraine has joined the NATO Support and Procurement Agency’s (NSPA) Security Cooperation Support Partnership (SCSP), enabling Ukrainian defence companies to participate in NATO contracts and contribute to shaping the country’s defence and…
NATO holds Helsinki talks on nuclear capability modernisation and stronger planningDefence Industry · 33 h agoBy Defence Industry Europe (newsroom) NATO’s senior nuclear advisers met in Helsinki on 21 October to discuss modernising the alliance’s nuclear capabilities and strengthening its planning capacity. The High Level Group held the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$189K

Today$127

This week$1.7K

At stake$9.4K

In the news14 headlines today, 356 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.