US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $290 today · $6.8K traded · $3.2K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

8%chance▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Yes: 12% on Oct 20, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	8%	▼ 4	6¢	9¢	$11.11	$6.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

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Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USthe Guardian · 11 h agoAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology…
OpenAI Launches GPT-6.1 Terra, Its Half-Good AI Model at Half the PriceDecrypt · 21 min agoOpenAI released GPT-6.1 Terra on Monday, an upgrade to the middle model in its lineup that it says costs developers 50% less than GPT-5.6 Terra and handles computer tasks faster and more accurately. Terra is the everyday model, built for…
Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsthe Guardian · 28 h agoAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing…
Artificial intelligence bot accesses Georgia voting dataajc · 15 h agoAn artificial intelligence agent accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, sources from the Secretary of State’s Office and AI company Anthropic confirmed. On Monday, Anthropic confirmed its Claude artificial intelligence bot…
Artificial IntelligenceDrishti IAS · 15 h agoFor Prelims: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Weak AI, Strong AI, Differences Between AI, ML and DL, Types of AI. For Mains: Indigenization of Technology & Developing New Technology, Awareness in Different Fields, Advantages of AI…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 2 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportOutKick · 3 days agoArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University…
HKEX Launches Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductor IndicesThe Manila Times · 16 h agoHKEX is also pleased to announce that it has entered into a licensing agreement with China Southern Asset Management Company Limited (Southern Asset Management) for the introduction of exchange traded funds (ETFs) based on the HKEX…
Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Follow Today – October 25thMarkets Daily · 11 h agoSentinelOne, Tempus AI, and Hut 8 are the three Artificial Intelligence stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat’s stock screener tool. Artificial intelligence stocks are shares of publicly traded companies that develop, provide, or…
Bradshaw: The scoreboard does not need artificial intelligenceChicago Tribune · 5 h agoThe high school football team loses 42–7, but the coach tells the newspaper his players showed a 100% improvement on offense as they were shut out last week. Parents are encouraged until somebody points out that going from zero to seven…
Inside the biggest feud in artificial intelligenceAustralian Financial Review · 17 h agoOne person consumed by this question is Dario Amodei, a Princeton-educated physicist who left Google in 2016 to join OpenAI, then a fledgling non-profit artificial intelligence research lab. He looked ... Gift articles to anyone you choose…
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessThe Verge · 3 days agoAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.8K

Today$290

This week$437

At stake$3.2K

In the news89 headlines today, 741 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". “Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions