OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $1.7K today · $337K traded · $84.8K at stake · prices read 12 min ago

The odds

13%chance▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Yes: 9% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	13%	▲ 2	12¢	14¢	$7.14	$337K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT

Search ›

Texas sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT’s safety for childrenTNW | Legal · 12 h agoAttorney General Ken Paxton wants ChatGPT kept away from minors in the state and new AI models vetted before release. The Texas OpenAI lawsuit names Altman personally. Ken Paxton at AmericaFest 2025 in Phoenix Texas has taken OpenAI and…
Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPT@cdnnow · 34 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district…
OpenAI to Train Cutting-Edge AI 'Offline'; Anthropic Makes Same Decision, Impact on ChatGPT and Remaining Loopholesnote（ノート） · 25 h agoAn AI tasked with a practice problem to research a person could not find the answer and threw a question to an external chatbot through a gap in its containment box. This actually happened with an OpenAI model under training on September…
'Dear ChatGPT': 12-year-old wins top youth prize at Australian Poetry Slam – videothe Guardian · 18 h agoBlake Mackenzie, a 12-year-old from Newcastle, has won the top youth prize at the Australian Poetry Slam for his reflections on artificial intelligence. The winning piece, performed at the Sydney Opera House on Sunday night, covered…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 2 days agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 2 days agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Twelve-year-old wins Australian slam competition prize with poem about ChatGPT: ‘It’s totally unnecessary’the Guardian · 18 h agoWritten the day before Sunday’s grand final, Blake Mackenzie’s poem covers brain rot, loneliness and environmental degradation in the age of AI Loneliness, brain rot and early exposure to porn. Twelve-year-old Blake Mackenzie has summed up…
Intapp Launches Celeste Plug-in for OpenAI's ChatGPT EnterpriseMarketScreener · 3 days agoIntapp said Thursday it is launching its Celeste plug-in for law firms on Microsoft-backed OpenAI's ChatGPT Enterprise. The company said Celeste is an AI coworker that was designed to handle... Intapp Launches Celeste Plug-in for OpenAI's…
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety Claims@law360 · 3 days agoThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to…
What is OpenAI 'dots'? A Thorough Explanation of 5 Differences from ChatGPT and How to Get Started [2026 Edition]note（ノート） · 47 h agoFrom the 'era of asking AI questions' to the 'era of delegating work to AI'. A service that makes you feel such a change has been released by OpenAI. Its name is 'dots'. It is a new AI agent announced on September 29, 2026. ChatGPT until…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAI@kbtxnews · 3 days agoTEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations…
Human vs. ChatGPT NFL Week 7 betting picks: Human clings to profit as AI claims third straight winOutKick · 35 h agoColin Cowherd predicts the best bets entering Week 7 of the NFL season, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, and Kansas City Chiefs. Apparently, the robot doesn't even have to make money to beat me anymore. ChatGPT finished…

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

85%Google

Google85%
Anthropic10%▼ 3
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 14, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3137%▼ 8
December 3196%▲ 2

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

63%No release by October 31

No release by October 3163%▲ 7
October 2714%▼ 3
October 287%▲ 3

11 more

October 296%▼ 5
October 303%
October 201%▼ 12
October 311%
October 26<1%▼ 4
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.25Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.25T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T82%

Falls to $800B3%
Falls to $700B3%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 18, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202611%▼ 4
December 31, 202752%▼ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$337K

Today$1.7K

This week$5.2K

At stake$84.8K

In the news156 headlines today, 1,789 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

AGI IncAGBK · about the company4.7300−37.60%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions