Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $1.1K today · $89.3K traded · $16K at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

93%Denver, CO

Denver, CO93%
Las Vegas, NV93%▼ 1
Sacramento, CA15%
Detroit, MI12%▼ 1
Portland, OR9%▼ 1
Baltimore, MD8%▼ 1
New Orleans, LA8%
Charlotte, NC7%▲ 3
London, UK6%▲ 3
Chicago, IL6%▼ 3
Boston, MA5%
Philadelphia, PA5%

7 more

New York, NY5%▲ 1
Minneapolis, MN5%▼ 1
Washington, DC4%
Seattle, WA4%▼ 4
Pittsburgh, PA4%
St. Louis, MO4%
Tokyo, Japan3%

How the odds have moved

Denver, CO: 96% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ San Diego, CA	>99%	▲ 17	100¢	100¢		$9K
✓ Tampa, FL	>99%	▲ 21	100¢	100¢		$5.2K
Denver, CO	93%		92¢	94¢	$1.07	$11.9K
Las Vegas, NV	93%	▼ 1	92¢	93¢	$1.08	$10.6K
Sacramento, CA	15%		13¢	17¢	$5.88	$11.3K
Detroit, MI	12%	▼ 1	11¢	12¢	$8.33	$4.5K
Portland, OR	9%	▼ 1	7¢	10¢	$10.00	$3.9K
Baltimore, MD	8%	▼ 1	6¢	10¢	$10.00	$1.9K
New Orleans, LA	8%		6¢	9¢	$11.11	$3K
Charlotte, NC	7%	▲ 3	6¢	8¢	$11.90	$1.6K
London, UK	6%	▲ 3	6¢	7¢	$15.38	$1.3K
Chicago, IL	6%	▼ 3	4¢	7¢	$14.29	$2.2K
Boston, MA	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.13	$4.7K
Philadelphia, PA	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	$4.3K
New York, NY	5%	▲ 1	4¢	6¢	$17.54	$2.6K
Minneapolis, MN	5%	▼ 1	3¢	6¢	$16.67	$2.9K
Washington, DC	4%		3¢	6¢	$17.54	$2.4K
Seattle, WA	4%	▼ 4	3¢	5¢	$19.23	$2.7K
Pittsburgh, PA	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.83	$1.6K
St. Louis, MO	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.83	$1.2K
Tokyo, Japan	3%		2¢	5¢	$20.83	$550

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Waymo

Search ›

Elon Musk’s Tesla eyes transportation ‘domination’ as Cybercab expansion heats up competition with WaymoNew York Post · 3 days agoElon Musk’s Tesla is gearing up to expand its gold-colored Cybercab robotaxi service beyond Austin, Tex., next month, with an exec saying the automaker is planning transportation “domination.” The electric car giant plans to deploy its…
Waymo starts offering rides at the Las Vegas airportTechCrunch · 4 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Waymo is now shuttling customers to and from the Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, with pickups and dropoffs happening at dedicated “autonomous vehicle zones”…
Waymo Robotaxis Now Pick Up at the Las Vegas Airport—but Not Everyone Can Ride YetMotorBiscuit · 23 h agoWaymo began driverless rides to and from Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas on Oct. 21, but for now only people who already ride with Waymo in the city can use them. Current Las Vegas riders now have airport access, and Waymo…
Lyft, Waymo Partner to Roll Out Robotaxi Service in NashvilleMarketScreener · 2 days agoPublished on 09/09/2026 at 07:18 am EDT - Modified on 09/09/2026 at 07:23 am EDT Lyft is teaming up with Alphabet's Waymo, now offering the company's autonomous ride-hailing services in Nashville, Tenn. The ride-hailing company said…
Waymo Wins the Airport Curb, Tesla Hits 75% FSD Take-Up: Grayson Brulte's Robotaxi Field NotesBigGo Finance · 28 h agoThe hosts did not get this from a press release. Brulte timed the walk from the terminal door to the Waymo pickup at Nashville's BNA: 2 minutes 20 seconds. Waymo also holds airport access at Las Vegas's Harry Reid, and delivery of that…
Waymo Keeps Importing Chinese Zeekr Robotaxis as a Senate Ban LoomsStartup Fortune · 2 days agoWaymo has shipped more than 3,200 Chinese-built Zeekr vehicles through the Port of Los Angeles since 2024, paying tariffs north of 100 percent, while Senator Bernie Moreno names the Ojai deal as the exact loophole his stalled bill targets…
Lyft, Inc. And Waymo, LLC Rides Now Available On The Lyft App In NashvilleMarketScreener · 2 days agoPublished on 09/09/2026 at 07:52 am EDT Many of the new hires have been former drivers on Lyft, Inc.?s network, bringing real-world experience in rider needs and service expectations. Lyft Is Transforming Into a Global Brand, CEO Says…
Is Waymo bringing driverless ride-hailing service to Ottawa?Ottawa Citizen · 2 days agoWaymo recently announced its plan to bring driverless ride-hailing to Toronto in 2028 — the company is also lobbying Ottawa officials. Waymo, the company bringing its driverless ride-hailing service to Toronto, is lobbying City Hall…
Waymo Robotaxis Begin Pickups, Drop-Offs at Las Vegas AirportPCMAG · 3 days agoWaymo robotaxis will operate from dedicated AV zones at Terminals 1 and 3 of the Harry Reid International Airport. Travelers in Las Vegas can now book Waymo robotaxis for trips to and from Harry Reid International Airport. Rides opened on…
Waymo Was No Cheaper Than Uber in This San Antonio Airport Test (But at Least You Don't Have to Tip)Yahoo Autos · 3 days agoA driverless car offered no fare savings over Uber in a San Antonio airport test. In an Oct. 15 comparison by KSAT, both apps showed prices of about $24 for a ride from the station's downtown office to San Antonio International Airport…
GOLDBERG: Waymo representing a major opportunity for consumersToronto Sun · 3 days agoDriverless vehicles could be in Toronto within two years Driverless vehicles could be hitting Toronto’s streets within two short years. That’s according to Waymo, an American company known for its driverless cabs. Waymo plans to start…
Waymo to launch its robotaxi service in SpainWardsAuto · 3 days agoThe driverless technology company expects its commercial service to be up and running next year. Autonomous driving technogy developer Waymo has announced it will begin offering robotaxi services in the Spanish capital of Madrid using a…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$89.3K

Today$1.1K

This week$4.8K

At stake$16K

In the news1 headlines today, 95 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions