Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
84%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan84%▼ 1
- Michele Tafoya16%▼ 1
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Minnesota Senate Election Winner
The odds
86%Peggy Flanagan (D)
- Peggy Flanagan (D)86%▼ 1
- Michele Tafoya (R)14%
How the odds have moved
Peggy Flanagan (D): 87% on Oct 20, 86% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | 86% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | $26K |
| Michele Tafoya (R) | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $189K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)Peggy Flanagan (D)Kalshi 84%Polymarket 86%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Minnesota Senate
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Election 2026 Minnesota SenatePost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at a campaign rally at Lincoln Park Middle School Saturday, Oct… - Poll: Flanagan Leads Tafoya in Minnesota Senate RaceBy Jim Thomas | Saturday, 24 October 2026 10:15 AM EDT Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, in the state's open U.S. Senate race amid scrutiny of a welfare…
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Jeremy Olson Column: Constitutional amendment could increase school fundingOn Nov. 3, voters will be asked to weigh in on a change to the Minnesota Constitution. A change to the state's constitution is intentionally designed to be a process that takes time and support at multiple levels, ultimately being decided… -
Rep. Michelle Fischbach talks trade, fuel prices, immigration in bid for reelectionMOORHEAD — Rep. Michelle Fischbach, fighting to keep her seat in the U.S. House, seeks to bring a rural voice to Washington. Fischbach, a Republican who represents Minnesota's 7th Congressional District, spoke about her accomplishments and… -
Fast Takes: Trump’s health reforms beat the hype, big lies from French riots and moreThe Post rounds up takes on Trump's health reforms beating progressive hype, French riot narratives, JK Rowling, and Minnesota's Senate race. Centrists: Trump’s Health Reforms Beat the Hype When “the Trump administration took reasonable… -
Ilhan Omar doubles down on ‘real name’ when confronted at Mall of SomaliaRep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., told Fox News Digital that her real name is "Ilhan Adbullahi Omar" after a federal court filing identified the embattled congresswoman under the name "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi." (Credit: Rashid Umar Abbasi for Fox News… -
‘She Lied To Us’: Annunciation 10-Year-Old Victim’s Parents Speak Out Against Demuth In New AdST. PAUL, MN — The parents of a 10-year-old girl killed in last year's Annunciation shooting accuse Republican governor candidate Lisa Demuth of lying to them in a new TV ad from the Minnesota DFL. In the ad, titled "Looked Us in the… -
Kornacki: Tide ‘Working Against’ Democrat in Minnesota Senate RaceWednesday on NBC’s “TODAY,” network chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said Minnesota’s tight Senate race could move in the GOP’s favor because Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, has faced a lot of criticism over the… -
Minnesota Senate: Liar? ‘Give Me a Freakin’ Break’Mark Trahant examines the political attacks against Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a citizen of the White Earth Nation, arguing that President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican challenger Michele Tafoya and negative polling… -
Flanagan’s Lead Narrows as Minnesota Senate Race Jumps Into PlayMinnesota’s open Senate race, once expected to stay safely in Democratic hands, has tightened enough to give Republicans a glimpse of something they have not won in the state for two decades. Flanagan is trying to become the first Native… -
Tim Walz, Peggy Flanagan under fire over Minnesota fraud, gang violenceTaxpayer fraud and rising gang violence in Minnesota spark heavy criticism from local residents and leaders. Minnesota Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya highlights up to $9 billion in wasted funds under the Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan… -
Minnesota Senate candidate Austin Peterson focuses on affordability, economic development and political balance in District 4 raceMINNESOTA — Minnesota Senate District 4 candidate Austin Peterson says affordability, government regulations and economic development are among the biggest concerns he is hearing from voters as he campaigns to unseat incumbent Democratic…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions