Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $10.2K |
| Elissa Slotkin | 7% | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | $1.8K | |
| Wes Moore | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | $2.7K | |
| Pete Buttigieg | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $5.5K | |
| Andy Beshear | 6% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $5.7K |
| James Talarico | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $1.5K | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $9.2K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $2.8K | |
| Raphael Warnock | 4% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $2.7K |
| Andrew Yang | 4% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | $1.1K |
| Mark Kelly | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | $4.3K |
| Bernie Sanders | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | $2.7K |
| Kim Kardashian | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $2.9K |
| Zohran Mamdani | 2% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $14K |
| Gavin Newsom | 2% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $2.3K |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | $2.9K | |
| Chris Murphy | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $2K | |
| Josh Shapiro | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $5.5K | |
| Roy Cooper | 2% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $1.8K |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $1.5K | |
| Ro Khanna | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $3.7K | |
| Gina Raimondo | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $2.7K | |
| Phil Murphy | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $2.7K |
| Kamala Harris | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $859 | |
| LeBron James | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | $858 | |
| Ruben Gallego | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $501 | |
| Oprah Winfrey | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | $1.3K | |
| Michelle Obama | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $1.6K | |
| Jon Stewart | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $2.1K | |
| Barack Obama | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | $2.2K | |
| Hunter Biden | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $4.3K | |
| George Clooney | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $1.5K | |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | $1.2K | |
| Tim Walz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $1.8K | |
| Jared Polis | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | $820 | |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $729 | ||
| Cory Booker | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.1K | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $541 | ||
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $2.1K | ||
| Beto O’Rourke | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $678 | ||
| John Fetterman | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $742 | ||
| Mark Cuban | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.1K | ||
| Liz Cheney | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $919 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions