Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- November 30>99%▲ 11
- December 31>99%▲ 7
Install
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
The odds
57%December 31
- December 3157%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31: 62% on Oct 20, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETDecember 31: 67% → 58%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETDecember 31: 62% → 55%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $5.1K | |||
| May 31 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $23K | ||
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $59.8K | |||
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $55.5K | ||
| December 31 | 57% | ▼ 1 | 56¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | $10K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
Search ›-
Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said… -
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military… -
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian… - Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkraineSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
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UN panel: Russia is committing crimes against humanity by targeting civilians in UkraineRussia is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity by intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure – including vital energy systems – in Ukraine, an independent UN investigations panel said on Monday. Russian forces have been… -
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the… -
Localized Russia-Ukraine ceasefire takes effect in Oleshky in deal brokered by Melania TrumpBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. MYKOLAIV, Ukraine — A… -
Ukraine war briefing: Trilateral peace talks with Russia to restart, says ZelenskyyUkraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart… -
Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in… -
Ukraine war briefing: Russia strikes Kyiv hours before truce begins in war-ravaged city OleshkyZelenskyy says ballistic missiles hit crowded areas with no military facilities nearby; truce comes amid reports of growing humanitarian crisis. What we know on day 1,707Russian strikes on Kyiv killed one person and wounded eight, with…
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All russia & ukraine ›Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
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Putin out as President of Russia by...?
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NATO x Russia military clash by...?
16%December 31
- October 312%
- November 156%▼ 1
- November 3010%
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- June 30, 20276%
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Dec 31, 2027even chance by
- January 31, 202724%▼ 2
- February 28, 202728%▼ 1
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- April 30, 202742%
- May 31, 202744%
- June 30, 202744%
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- August 31, 202744%▼ 2
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- October 3144%
- October 31, 202744%▼ 1
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- November 3044%▼ 2
- December 3144%
- December 31, 202771%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions