US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.45median
1.201.60
Median 1.45Middle half 1.41 – 1.53
Install
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
The odds
53%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%53%
- Falls to 6.5%22%
- Falls to 6.25%9%
- Falls to 6%6%
- Falls to 5.9%3%
- Falls to 5.7%1%
- Falls to 5.5%1%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
How the odds have moved
Falls to 6%: 5% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑ 6.20% | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | |||
| ✓ ↑ 6.30% | >99% | ▼ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $29.4K | |
| ✓ ↑ 6.50% | >99% | ▲ 13 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6.9K | |
| ✓ ↑ 6.75% | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5.5K | |
| ✓ ↑ 7.00% | >99% | ▲ 10 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8K | |
| ✓ ↑ 7.25% | >99% | ▲ 11 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.3K | |
| ↑ 7.50% | 53% | ▼ 14 | 49¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | $2.7K |
| ↓ 5.50% | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $3.4K | |
| ↓ 5.70% | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $12.6K | ||
| ↓ 5.90% | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $11.6K | |
| ↓ 6.00% | 6% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $4.2K |
| ✓ ↓ 6.00% | >99% | ▲ 27 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $673 | |
| ↓ 6.25% | 9% | ▼ 8 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $5.2K |
| ↓ 6.50% | 22% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $14.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mortgage Rate
Search ›-
Mortgage rates above 7% are the 'new normal'—here's whyEveryone seems to agree that mortgage rates above 7% are the new "normal." The phrase keeps popping up lately in public comments from housing economists, including Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, and… - Mortgage Rates Today, October 26, 2026: 30-Year Rates Rise to 7.36%Prime Big Deal Days Mortgage rates are up from Friday and over 7.00%. Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.36%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.77%. Over…
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Average 30-year mortgage rate returns to its level from four weeks agoThis annual Florida Realtors event focuses on association governance and public policy and inducts your Leadership Team. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.66% from 6.65% last week, while the 15-year rate increased to 5.98% from… -
Mortgage rates rise to 6.66%, bringing average rate on 30-year home loan to where it was 4 weeks agoMortgage rates ticked higher this week, nudging the average long-term U.S. home loan rate closer to its recent high for the year. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate edged up to 6.66% from 6.65% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie… -
Mortgage rates 'could move within 48 hours of Wednesday' this weekFixed mortgage rates could move within 48 hours of Wednesday’s Budget in either direction, experts have warned. Brokers told Newspage that a negative reaction from bond markets could increase lenders’ funding costs. However, they stressed… -
US mortgage rates may stay above 7% through 2027 as inflation, government borrowing and AI spending raise costsUS mortgage rates may remain above 7% through 2027. Major housing groups expect mortgage rates to stay high for an extended period, making home loans expensive for Americans who want to buy houses. Fannie Mae forecasts that mortgage rates… -
House prices fall in a third of postcodes as high mortgage rates continue to biteHouse prices have fallen in a third of British neighbourhoods in the past year as high mortgage costs put people off moving. Property website Zoopla said 35 per cent of homes are now in postcode areas where house prices are falling, up… - Today's Mortgage Rates Drop Again, Continuing Downward Trend: Oct. 26, 2026The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed purchase mortgage is 7.349% as of Oct. 26. Compare today's purchase and refinance rates, explore historical trends and see tips for shopping for the best loan. Today's Mortgage Rates: Oct. 26…
- Mortgage rates are rising: Where homebuyers can still find affordable homesMoneyLion identified 35 housing markets where home values are at least $50,000 below their state averages. Lower home prices don’t always mean a more affordable move, so buyers should consider local incomes, job opportunities, property…
- Mortgage Rates Today, October 23, 2026: 30-Year Rates Drop to 7.34%Prime Big Deal Days Mortgage rates are down from yesterday and over 7.00%. Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.34%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.76%…
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Mortgage Rates Today, October 24, 2026: 30-Year Refinance Rate Drops by 20 Basis PointsOctober 24, 2026 by Marco Santarelli Here is how the national average refinance rates look across major loan products today: You might be wondering what's causing this sudden dip. It’s important to remember that mortgage rates don't just… -
Today’s Mortgage Rates, October 24: Every Rate Falls, 7/1 ARM LeadsOctober 24, 2026 by Marco Santarelli Good news for anyone shopping for a home this weekend: every purchase mortgage rate we track fell on Saturday, October 24, 2026. The average 30-year fixed rate slipped 4 basis points to 7.12%. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions