US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)
6%median
-12%12%
Median 6%
Install
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
The odds
705,678median
670,000750,000
Median 705,678Middle half 701,441 – 709,915
How the odds have moved
Median: 706,569 on Sep 23, 705,678 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 680,000 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 8.6K | |
| Above 690,000 | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 15.2K | |
| Above 700,000 | 84% | 83¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 1.2K | |
| Above 710,000 | 25% | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 17.4K | |
| Above 720,000 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 66.8K | |
| Above 730,000 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 7.8K | |
| Above 740,000 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 52.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California FAIR Plan
Search ›-
Viewpoint: What a FAIR Plan Quote Does to a California Home SaleUnderwriters see the risk. Agents see the policy. I see what happens three weeks later, when a buyer sitting in escrow finds out what the house will actually cost to insure. I buy houses directly from owners across Los Angeles County. Most… -
How Hurricane Isaias could reshape catastrophe risk modelsHurricane Isaias holds the title for a lot of “firsts” this season. As a Category 2 hurricane, it was the first storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first storm to make U.S. landfall since Hurricane Milton. It may also… - Folsom Fire Insurance Of Last Resort Jumps From 8 Homes to 300 Since 2021Eight. That's how many homes in Folsom's 95630 ZIP code relied on California's FAIR Plan, the state's fire insurance of last resort, back in 2021. By June of this year, that number had climbed to 300 ... Explore Our Cities & Metro Areas…
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Polygrass' Burn Shield Patent Receives CAL FIRE BML Class A ApprovalServing America's Bravest Since 1976 Polyglass USA reveals a significant advancement in fire safety as California deals with escalating wildfire seasons and stricter building regulations. Polyglass's exclusive, recently patented Burn… -
In the UK and Europe, insurance insiders say climate risk projections get a 'haircut'That can mean paying more for less protection — or losing access to private insurance altogether. A memo from insurance insiders in the U.K. and Europe alleges that some companies are pressuring catastrophe modelers to soften climate-risk… -
What Climate Change Is Costing CaliforniaLed by Gordon McCord and Teevrat Garg of the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, the “Climate Impacts to the Economy” report is one of four statewide topical reports in the Fifth Assessment, a… -
Use of last-resort fire insurance rises sharply in Sacramento CountyPublished on October 20, 2026 Cal Fire crews work on the Grant Fire in Sacramento County on June 14, 2020. The fire burned about 5,000 acres between Sloughhouse and Folsom. For decades, few people in Sacramento County needed to think much… -
The Insurance Quote That Kills Southern California Home SalesThe deal doesn’t die at the inspection anymore. It dies about three weeks in, when the buyer gets an insurance quote. I buy houses from sellers across Los Angeles County. A couple of years ago, when I first started, insurance was not a big… -
California FAIR Plan rates jump nearly 30% as homeowners seek wildfire insurance alternativesOctober 15, 2026 / 7:16 PM PDT / CBS San Francisco California homeowners are facing another financial blow as insurance rates under the state's FAIR Plan increase by an average of 29.1% starting Thursday. The California FAIR Plan provides… - California FAIR Plan rates spike; homeowners invest in wildfire protection to save on insuranceCBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. California FAIR…
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First Alert Weather Saturday morning forecast 10-17-26CBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. First Alert… -
Homeless encampments, illegal dumping return to troubled Oakland lot after barriers removedCBS News Homeless encampments, illegal dumping return to troubled Oakland lot after barriers removed How women of the Black Panther Party served a principal role Valkyries inspriring more women to join San Francisco basketball pickup…
Related markets
All housing ›Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
60%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%60%
- Falls to 6.5%23%
- Falls to 6.25%17%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
US new home sales for September (September 2026)
646,667median
580,000760,000
Median 646,667Middle half 624,906 – 678,750
US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.38median
1.201.65
Median 1.38Middle half 1.33 – 1.43
Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
90%chance
US new home · Median sales price in September (September 2026)
$395,200median
$360,000$425,000
Median $395,200Middle half $385,952 – $405,714
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions