US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)
1.69%median
-12%12%
Median 1.69%
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US new home sales for September (September 2026)
The odds
642,000median
580,000760,000
Median 642,000Middle half 623,793 – 675,862
How the odds have moved
Median: 653,000 on Oct 20, 642,000 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | 90% | ▼ 2 | 87¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.6K |
| Above 620,000 | 81% | ▼ 5 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 1.3K |
| Above 640,000 | 52% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 740 |
| Above 660,000 | 37% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 2.3K |
| Above 680,000 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 17¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 343 |
| Above 700,000 | 12% | ▲ 3 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 495 |
| Above 720,000 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 25.00 |
| Above 740,000 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | $12.50 | 56.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All housing ›Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
60%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%60%
- Falls to 6.5%26%
- Falls to 6.25%23%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.38median
1.201.65
Median 1.38Middle half 1.33 – 1.43
Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
90%chance
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
705,678median
670,000750,000
Median 705,678Middle half 701,441 – 709,915
New Home Sales (Sep 2026)
647,500median
340,0001.09M
Median 647,500Middle half 620,000 – 670,882
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions