US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.38median
1.201.60
Median 1.38Middle half 1.33 – 1.44
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New Home Sales (Sep 2026)
The odds
650,000median
340,0001.09M
Median 650,000Middle half 621,667 – 670,882
How the odds have moved
Median: 650,000 on Oct 20, 650,000 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 365,000 | 79% | $1.27 | ||||
| Above 390,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 100 | |||
| Above 440,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 90.00 | |||
| Above 490,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 140 | |||
| Above 540,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 190 | |||
| Above 565,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 160 | |||
| Above 590,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 410 | |||
| Above 615,000 | 79% | $1.27 | 405 | |||
| Above 640,000 | 64% | $1.56 | 210 | |||
| Above 665,000 | 29% | $3.45 | 120 | |||
| Above 690,000 | 12% | $8.33 | 80.00 | |||
| Above 715,000 | 5% | $20.00 | 20.00 | |||
| Above 740,000 | 3% | $33.33 | 10.00 | |||
| Above 765,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 790,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 840,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 890,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 940,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 990,000 | <1% | |||||
| Above 1,040,000 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New Home Sales
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Related markets
All housing ›Colorado permitted housing units in 2026
31,450median
28,00040,000
Median 31,450
NYC median asking rent in December 2026
$3,994median
$3,700$4,600
Median $3,994Middle half $3,931 – $4,080
US existing home sales for October (October 2026)
3.88median
3.504.40
Median 3.88Middle half 3.75 – 3.99
US housing starts for October (October 2026)
1.25median
11.45
Median 1.25Middle half 1.18 – 1.30
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
22%↓ 6.50%
- Reaches 7.5%83%
- Falls to 6.5%22%
- Falls to 6.25%20%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.