US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.45median
1.201.60
Median 1.45Middle half 1.41 – 1.53
Install
Commercial property prices down >20% YoY as of Oct 2027?
The odds
95%chance▲ 91
How the odds have moved
Yes: 6% on Oct 23, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 1 PM ET4% → 88%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | ▲ 91 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Commercial
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Latvia targets tokenization rules in 2027 with commercial property in focusLatvia could have rules for tokenizing real-world assets in place in the first half of 2027, with commercial property as a possible starting point and government bonds on the list as well. In an interview with CoinDesk, Economics Minister… -
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ECI Declares ECInet Software A ‘Commercial Confidence’ MatterHyderabad: Rejecting an RTI application, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has declined to disclose the name and version of the ECINet software, citing provisions relating to commercial confidence, trade secrets and intellectual… -
Deep Fission Targets 2027 Kansas Nuclear Pilot, 2028 Commercial RolloutPosted by Michael Walen on Oct 25th, 2026 CEO and Co-Founder Liz Muller said the company’s work is organized around regulatory approvals, commercial siting, fuel supply, construction and customers. Deep Fission has received Department of… -
Modern Commercial Facilities Increasingly Adopt Metal Sheet Partition WallsChengdu Sichuan China October 24 2026 Picking a Metal Sheet Partition Wall https www ecosteelsource com metal sheet partition wall isn t just about looks It can have a big impact on safety how long it lasts upkeep and how ... Modern… -
Commercial Concealment Law marks turning point for KuwaitArab Times Kuwait News Commercial Concealment Law marks turning point for Kuwait Expert calls for awareness campaign ahead of implementation He views the new law as an indispensable pillar of the government’s comprehensive vision for… -
The Commercial Space Federation Releases New White Paper “Perfecting Public-Private Partnerships”February 24, 2026 – Washington, DC – The Commercial Space Federation (CSF) is proud to announce the release of a new paper titled “Perfecting Public-Private Partnerships: The Future of Government ... Tickets for the 2026 Icon Awards are on… -
Female service director transforms dealership’s commercial center and technician pipelineFelica Barr overcame self doubt to become service director at Bertera Auto Group, building a $1.5 million commercial center and a technician pipeline through high school and technical program partnerships. Female service director… -
LG Electronics to Supply Commercial Laundry Machines to Germany's SchillingEuropean Sales Up 20%, U.S. Shipments Expanded AI-Based High-Efficiency Products Lead the Push LG Electronics (066570) is accelerating its push into Europe's business-to-business market by supplying large-capacity commercial laundry…
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$422,327median
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Median $422,327
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
704,926median
670,000750,000
Median 704,926Middle half 701,250 – 708,603
US new home sales for September (September 2026)
640,889median
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Median 640,889Middle half 620,000 – 664,516
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
52%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%52%
- Falls to 6.5%22%
- Falls to 6.25%8%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)
-0.32%median
-12%12%
Median -0.32%Middle half -1.45% – 5.35%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions