Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closed, awaiting its result Closed Fri 11:59 PM ET · $7K today · $31.1K traded · $4.5K at stake

The last odds before it closed

38.5median

3542

Median 38.5Middle half 38.2 – 38.8

How the odds have moved

Median: 38.7 on Oct 20, 38.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
36.0+	>99%	▲ 3	100¢	100¢	$959
37.0+	>99%	▲ 1	100¢	100¢	$1.8K
38.0+	>99%	▲ 4	100¢	100¢	$3.3K
39.0+	<1%	▼ 5		0¢	$8.9K
40.0+	<1%	▼ 1		0¢	$8.7K
41.0+	<1%	▼ 1		0¢	$7.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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Trump Administration News: Headlines and Video on Trump OfficialsNBC News · 15 h agoNBC News The latest on the 47th presidential administration. Ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump goes into effect in Russian-occupied town ‘on the brink of disaster’ DOJ asks Washington state to set aside 400 ballots from voters it says…
Trump administration pushes for Venezuela electionssemafor.com · 5 h agoThe Trump administration is working with Venezuela to set up a path toward elections, according to a senior State Department official. The blueprint would see a new Supreme Court, or TSJ, put into place by mid-December of this year…
Cuba holds on as Trump ups pressurePOLITICO · 6 h agoFrom the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. By ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING 10/26/2026 04:07 PM EDT Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez gives a news conference…
Samantha Power, 'The Diplomat' showrunner on Trump impactFox News · 42 min agoFormer Obama U.N. ambassador Samantha Power sat with the creator of Netflix's "The Diplomat" to discuss the state of U.S. diplomacy under the Trump administration. Samantha Power, 'The Diplomat' showrunner on Trump impact Former Obama U.N…
Rubio touring Texas with Trump as the president rallies supportersPOLITICO · 48 min agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump will tour an oil tanker filled with Venezuelan crude, likely spotlighting the administration’s efforts to bring down gas prices. President Donald Trump listens as Secretary of State…
Garland defends handling of Biden, Trump classified document probesPOLITICO · 63 min agoAttorney general made his first public comments since FBI searched Biden's Delaware home and found more items marked classified. 01/23/2023 4:40 PM EST Attorney General Merrick Garland is defending the Justice Department’s investigations…
Trump Admin Goes on Offensive Over Obama Cheesecake Factory RemarkNewsweek · 15 min agoOct 27, 2026 at 09:25 AM EDT The exchange began Saturday, when Obama criticized Trump's extensive renovations during a campaign rally in Cleveland, Ohio. The Democrat compared the White House's gold-heavy decor to a Cheesecake Factory…
Trump makes final midterm push with one week to goCBS News · 62 min agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump kicks off…
Donald Trump's biggest economic problem looks strangely familiarBBC News · 8 h agoThe White House is confronting a familiar dilemma. The economic numbers aren't necessarily bad - but the public mood is. It's a disconnect that haunted Joe Biden in 2024, when solid headline data failed to convince many voters that the…
Trump Repeatedly Calls Out Daylight Saving Delay Before Clock ChangeNewsweek · 2 h agoOct 27, 2026 at 04:08 AM EDT Oct 27, 2026 at 04:22 AM EDT President Donald Trump has renewed his calls for the Senate to make daylight saving time permanent, warning lawmakers that they only have days to act before clocks go back across…
Nikola founder Trevor Milton receives full pardon from President TrumpCBS News · 4 h agoUpdated on: March 28, 2025 / 10:42 AM EDT / CBS News Nikola founder Trevor Milton said in a social media post that he's received "a full and unconditional pardon" by President Trump, adding that the president called him personally to…
Trump campaigns in Mississippi, highlighting Republicans' challengesThe Washington Post · 11 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. President Donald Trump…

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21 more

Lee Jun-seok9%▼ 11
Anthony Fauci8%▲ 1
Tom Homan8%▲ 1
Susan Rice8%▲ 2
James Clapper6%▲ 1
Candace Owens6%
Lisa Cook5%
Letitia James5%▲ 1
Pam Bondi5%
Hillary Clinton5%▲ 3
Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
Benjamin Netanyahu5%▲ 1
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
Brandon Johnson4%▼ 1
Gavin Newsom3%
Kash Patel2%
Loretta Lynch2%
Bill Clinton2%
John Kerry2%
Barack Obama2%
Joe Biden1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closedOct 23, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$31.1K

Today$7K

This week$31.1K

At stake$4.5K

In the news2,027 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data i

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions