Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 27, 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes today 12:59 PM ET · $23.4K today · $23.5K traded · $14K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

38.34%median
38.15%38.85%
Median 38.34%Middle half 38.26% – 38.45%

How the odds have moved

Median: 38.34% on Oct 27, 38.34% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Below 38.2% 9% 9¢ 11¢ $9.09 42.8K
38.2% 14% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 23.7K
38.3% 29% 31¢ 32¢ $3.13 21.9K
38.4% 22% 24¢ 25¢ $4.00 21.3K
38.5% 11% 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 14.1K
38.6% 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 9.9K
38.7% 3% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 11.2K
38.8% 3% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 8.6K
Above 38.8% 3% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 15.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump's RCP

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Who will be arrested before 2027?

22%James Comey
  • James Comey22%▲ 15
  • John Brennan22%
  • Mahmoud Khalil21%▲ 2
21 more
  • Lee Jun-seok18%▲ 8
  • Anthony Fauci8%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan8%▼ 6
  • Lisa Cook6%▲ 1
  • Candace Owens6%▲ 1
  • James Clapper6%
  • Susan Rice6%▼ 1
  • Letitia James5%▲ 1
  • Pam Bondi5%▼ 1
  • Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu4%
  • Brandon Johnson4%▼ 1
  • Hillary Clinton3%▲ 2
  • Gavin Newsom3%▲ 1
  • Kash Patel2%
  • Loretta Lynch2%
  • Bill Clinton2%
  • John Kerry2%
  • Barack Obama2%
  • Joe Biden1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions