GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Nov 24, 2026even chance by
- October 3116%▼ 4
- November 1534%▼ 3
- November 3062%▲ 11
2 more
- December 1572%▼ 4
- December 3177%▼ 10
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Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
The odds
34%Saudi Arabia
- Saudi Arabia34%▲ 1
- Russia6%▼ 3
- China5%
- Meta5%
- Anthropic4%
- SpaceXAI / Elon Musk3%
- Iran3%
- Google3%
- North Korea2%
- Israel2%
How the odds have moved
Saudi Arabia: 35% on Oct 20, 34% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 11 PM ETSaudi Arabia: 25% → 34%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 8 PM ETSaudi Arabia: 40% → 28%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 34% | ▲ 1 | 33¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | $47.1K |
| Russia | 6% | ▼ 3 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $27.2K |
| China | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $18.9K | |
| Meta | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $16.7K | |
| Anthropic | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $14.6K | |
| SpaceXAI / Elon Musk | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $9.3K | |
| Iran | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | $9.1K | |
| 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $15.1K | ||
| North Korea | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $1.7K | |
| Israel | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Saudi Arabia
Search ›-
Dakar Cancels Saudi Arabia Rally, But Says The Event is Still OnThe Dakar Rally will not run in Saudi Arabia in 2027, with organizers moving the event to an as-yet-unnamed territory while keeping the January schedule intact. Amaury Sport Organisation (A.S.O.) and Saudi Motorsport Company (SMC)… - Iran hosts Saudi Arabia and regional powers as fears grow of return to warSaudi Arabia and its allies dispatched top security officials to Iran for talks on Monday amid fears of a fresh US-Israeli offensive that could plunge the Middle East into further instability. Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and…
- Saudi Arabia says it intercepted missiles and drones from Iran-backed HouthisSaudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles headed for several cities, including the capital Riyadh, fired by Iran-aligned Houthis on Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said. The ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the…
- 2027 Saudi Arabia Dakar race cancelled amid Middle East unrestThe FIA have confirmed that the Dakar Saudi Arabia 2027 will not take place as scheduled from 1 to 15 January 2027 amid ongoing conflict in the region. Earlier this week, the US State Department ordered non-essential diplomatic staff and…
- Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia next year cancelled due to Houthi attacksThe 2027 Dakar Rally has been cancelled in Saudi Arabia amid the tense situation caused by ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels, but it is set to held elsewhere. Organizers said in a statement on Sunday that the endurance race, originally…
- Dakar Rally off-road race moved out of Saudi ArabiaThe Dakar Rally, one of the world's toughest and best-known off-road races, has been moved out of Saudi Arabia next year after what organizers called "recent developments in the region." ...
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1,561 Ethiopians Return From Saudi ArabiaEthiopians return from Saudi Arabia in weekly groups, and 1,561 came home in seven flights, Fana Media Corporation reported on Monday 26 October 2026. The group had 929 men, 580 women and 52 children who had lived in difficult conditions… -
WATCH: WWE Crown Jewel Stadium Construction Underway in Saudi Arabia Amid Security ConcernsConstruction of the Riyadh Season Stadium for WWE Crown Jewel is underway despite regional security worries. The 2026 WWE Crown Jewel Premium Live Event is scheduled for KAFD, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday, November 7, 2026. As they did for… -
Egypt parliament authorises defensive support to Saudi ArabiaWriters pledge royalties to Sally Rooney after books pulled Palestine, Iran, world leaders welcome Lula Brazil election win Could Syria help Saudi Arabia fight the Houthis without troops? Protecting minorities: A test for Syria's new… -
Egypt's parliament authorizes military support for Saudi ArabiaEgypt's parliament on Monday authorized President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi to take necessary measures to support Saudi Arabia in defending its territory, according to Egyptian media reports. The resolution was approved by a two-thirds… -
Egypt parliament authorizes defensive support to Saudi Arabia: state mediaCAIRO: Egypt’s parliament authorized on Monday sending military support to Saudi Arabia to defend against Houthi attacks, following a request from President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The House of Representatives “approved authorizing President… -
Egypt's Parliament Grants President Sisi Mandate to Defend Saudi ArabiaEgypt's House of Representatives approved a mandate on Monday, authorising President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to take the necessary measures to support and defend Saudi Arabia amid escalating regional security threats. The decision was…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
54%Anthropic
- Anthropic54%▲ 1
- Google36%
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
89%Google
- Google89%▲ 3
- Anthropic9%▼ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
48%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 202613%▼ 1
- December 31, 202748%▼ 8
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.26Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T84%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
73%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3173%
- October 2717%▲ 4
- October 294%
11 more
- October 313%▲ 4
- October 282%▼ 1
- October 302%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions