Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by...?
The odds
47%0-3 points behind
- 0-3 points behind47%▼ 10
- 3-6 points behind21%▲ 1
- Runs ahead13%▼ 8
- 9+ points behind13%▲ 9
- 6-9 points behind5%▼ 13
How the odds have moved
0-3 points behind: 44% on Oct 20, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 9 PM ET0-3 points behind: 44% → 37%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 points behind | 47% | ▼ 10 | 37¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | $2K |
| 3-6 points behind | 21% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $1.8K |
| Runs ahead | 13% | ▼ 8 | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $1.2K |
| 9+ points behind | 13% | ▲ 9 | 8¢ | 19¢ | $5.29 | $699 |
| 6-9 points behind | 5% | ▼ 13 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Abdul El-Sayed, Jocelyn Benson
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WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in DetroitFormer President Barack Obama joins Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson at a campaign rally in Detroit. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in Detroit Former President Barack Obama… -
WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders hits campaign trail with Abdul El-Sayed in MichiganDemocratic Senate candidate El-Sayed delivers remarks to supporters at a campaign rally alongside Bernie Sanders in Grand Rapids, Michigan, just days ahead of the critical midterm elections. WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders hits campaign trail… -
Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan rallyDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed tells reporters on eve of president's rally that Trump will praise tariffs, Iran war and 'big ugly bill' during Michigan visit. Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan… -
Mike Rogers on Trump calling Abdul El-Sayed a terrorist: ‘I've never called him a terrorist’In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Michigan Senate candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) responds to President Trump calling Abdul El-Sayed a “jihadist” and “violent terrorist.” Kornacki: Where Democrats see openings for… -
Trump attacks Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan campaign stopCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
President Trump speaks out against Abdul El-Sayed in MichiganCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Obama seeks to shore up Abdul El-Sayed with Black voters at Michigan rallyFormer President Barack Obama rallied for Michigan’s Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit on Saturday as the bitterly fought contest could come down to the city’s substantial Black vote. “We’re clear about the choice in this… -
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visitFox News Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed blasts Trump ahead of president's battleground state visit Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed tells Fox News Digital that former President Barack Obama reminds voters of a president… -
"We're all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-SayedCNN ‘We’re all on the same team": Dem Senator on getting moderate voters behind progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed CNN's Jessica Dean speaks to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin about the neck-and-neck Senate race in Michigan as… -
Bernie Sanders to rally with Abdul El-Sayed during two-day Michigan tourGRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Senator Bernie Sanders (D - Vt.) is joining the list of political leaders visiting Michigan ahead of the state's Nov. 3 Midterm Election. Sunday, at the start of his two-day tour, Sanders is slated to rally with U.S… -
Trump Attacks Abdul El-Sayed Over Muslim Faith“President Donald Trump used a campaign rally to intensify his attacks on Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his Muslim faith and his Egyptian heritage, repeatedly portraying the Michigan-born Democrat as sympathetic to Islamic extremism… -
Barack Obama to rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan ahead of key US Senate race – US politics liveThe former Democratic president is showing major support in Detroit for the progressive Michigan candidate in final days before US midterm elections Hundreds of Michiganders have gathered outside Cass Technical High School in Detroit…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions