Best AI model on October 26?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes today 11:59 PM ET · $169 today · $21.4K traded · $2.6K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

98%gemini-4-argon-high

gemini-4-argon-high98%
Other1%▼ 1
claude-opus-5.5-high1%
claude-fable-5.1-max<1%

How the odds have moved

gemini-4-argon-high: 87% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETgemini-4-argon-high: 87% → 92%
- How artificial intelligence is helping doctors and patients fight breast cancerCBS News · 5 days ago
- Best AI Models in 2026 Compared: Claude vs ChatGPT vs Gemini vs Grok vs DeepSeektechietory · 18 days ago
- OpenAI’s latest AI models are coming to Google Cloud and AntigravityArs Technica · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
gemini-4-argon-high	98%		97¢	100¢		$10.1K
Other	1%	▼ 1	0¢	2¢	$41.67	$7.5K
claude-opus-5.5-high	1%			1¢	$90.91	$2K
claude-fable-5.1-max	<1%			0¢		$1.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Best AI

Search ›

Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsthe Guardian · 21 h agoAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing…
When art, music, artificial intelligence meet at Istanbul's AKMDaily Sabah · 29 h agoIstanbul’s Atatürk Cultural Centre (AKM) recently hosted a special evening that brought together art, music, architecture and technology. The event marked a significant anniversary for Limak, but its atmosphere extended beyond a corporate…
Intel vs. SK Hynix: Revenue Trends to Help Investors Weigh Which Artificial Intelligence Stock to BuyThe Motley Fool · 22 h agoDuring the late summer months, it priced an upsized $20 billion public offering of common stock. In October, it entered a technical collaboration with Applied Materials to develop next-generation transistor packaging technologies. It…
Lightweight AI model spots tiny grape leaf diseases on mobile devicesBIOENGINEER.ORG · 17 h agoResearchers report a lightweight YOLOv10n-based detector that cuts model size and computation by roughly a third while maintaining near-baseline accuracy in detecting small grape leaf disease lesions. Subject of Research: A lightweight…
Best AI Writing Tools in 2026: Blogs, Emails and MoreDEV Community · 25 h agoIf you write for a living in 2026, the hardest choice is not whether to use AI, but which AI to open first. Chatbots draft well, editors polish well, and marketing tools scale well, yet few tools do all three. The trick is to match the…
Artificial intelligence played alone on a virtual island and got better at testsDEV Community · 24 h agoResearchers tested 13 AI agents controlled by Claude Opus 4.7 on virtual islands with no assigned tasks. Over 30-hour runs with hourly resets and persistent memory, agents independently built structures and invented games, with experienced…
When storytelling meets Artificial IntelligenceThe Nation Newspaper · 31 h agoOctober 25, 2026 by Our Reporter For decades, development organizations have faced a difficult communications challenge: how do you attract attention to a crisis without reducing people to that crisis? Writes Udemma Chukwuma. According to…
Best AI tools for CPA firms in 2027DEV Community · 29 h agoThe best AI tools for CPA firms in 2027 finish one job in the software the firm already runs. A pasted paragraph in a chat window and a W-2 posted into tax software are different jobs. If you run the stack, or you build for firms that do…
Artificial intelligence answers: what is the expected result of the Barcelona and Real Madrid Clasico?Yardbarker · 33 h agoA match the world awaits Football fans turn their eyes to the Spotify Camp Nou this Sunday evening for a heavyweight clash between Barcelona and Real Madrid. This Clasico goes beyond the calculation of three points, placing both sides…
AI POWERHOUSE: Nvidia Nears $6 Trillion Valuation as Artificial Intelligence Boom Drives Record Highs@YWN · 32 h agoNvidia is approaching a staggering $6 trillion market valuation, with the chipmaking giant now worth approximately $5.73 trillion after reaching a record of roughly $5.77 trillion earlier this week. The scale is extraordinary: Hundreds of…
New Lunit Study Demonstrates Universal AI Model for Analysis of Immunohistochemistry Images@PRNewswire · 23 h agoDec 12, 2024, 09:08 ET Addressing Challenges in IHC Analysis Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is an essential tool in oncology, enabling pathologists to detect and quantify protein expression which in turn guides decisions for systemic therapy…
Nearly half of Canadians have either gone online or used artificial intelligence to self-diagnose: reportToronto Sun · 20 h agoA recent survey is shedding light on the medical habits of Canadians who can’t secure a doctor’s appointment. Nearly two in three (66%) decided not to book a doctor’s appointment because they expected it would be too hard to get seen…

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

86%Google

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OpenAI1%

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Meta<1%
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Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
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Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
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Microsoft<1%

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52%Anthropic

Anthropic52%▲ 3
Google36%▼ 2
OpenAI6%

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Meta2%
xAI1%▼ 1
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

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October 2716%▼ 2
October 284%▲ 1

11 more

October 294%▼ 1
October 263%
October 302%▲ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 20, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

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October 3130%▼ 1
December 3193%▼ 1

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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

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34%December 31, 2028

December 31, 20264%
June 30, 202711%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 26, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$21.4K

Today$169

This week$4.9K

At stake$2.6K

In the news65 headlines today, 730 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions