Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
The odds
34%Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate34%▲ 4
- Oil < $80; R Senate2%
How the odds have moved
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate: 35% on Oct 20, 34% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 34% | ▲ 4 | 32¢ | 37¢ | $2.72 | $12.3K |
| Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $45.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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GOP Mich. Senate hopeful Mike Rogers dodges whether he’s ‘MAGA Republican’GOP Michigan Senate hopeful Mike Rogers on Sunday sidestepped whether he views himself as a “MAGA Republican.” “I get you guys on the national press, but this is a little bit disgusting to me,” Rogers said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press”… -
Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd… -
Maine Republicans face a defining test as Susan Collins fights to keep her Senate seatSen. Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine as Republicans debate the future of centrism and the GOP's place in New England. Maine Republicans face a defining test as Susan Collins fights to keep her Senate… -
9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate… -
Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026… -
Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump… -
Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on… -
Paxton and Talarico on the campaign trail in tight Senate raceCBS News Chicago Sunday 5:30pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Todd Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit over Senate election in AlaskaBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The attorney general… -
Democratic Senate Candidate: Trump Did ‘Better Job’ on Border Than BidenOct 25, 2026 at 05:52 PM EDT Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, said President Donald Trump has done a “better job” on the border than former President Joe Biden, while identifying several areas where he could work… -
Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep… -
Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceBlack voters in Michigan voice their concerns about Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as only weeks remain in the tight race. Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race Black voters in Michigan voice their…
Related markets
All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 2
- Republican Party36%▼ 1
Texas Senate Election Winner
67%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)67%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)34%▼ 2
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
77%Darline Graham
- Darline Graham77%▼ 3
- Annie Andrews24%▲ 3
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
68%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed68%▲ 2
- Mike Rogers32%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions