Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Closest Governor's Race?
The odds
17%Georgia
- Georgia17%
- Nevada10%
- Kansas10%▼ 1
- Texas9%
- Ohio9%
- Florida8%▲ 4
- Nebraska7%▲ 4
- Wisconsin6%
- Tennessee5%
- Arkansas4%▲ 1
- Vermont4%
- Alabama4%▲ 1
24 more
- Oregon4%▲ 2
- New Hampshire3%
- Iowa3%▼ 1
- Oklahoma2%▼ 2
- Michigan2%▲ 1
- Alaska1%
- South Carolina<1%
- New Mexico<1%
- Illinois<1%
- Rhode Island<1%
- Colorado<1%
- Minnesota<1%
- Maine<1%
- California<1%
- Connecticut<1%
- Hawaii<1%
- Idaho<1%
- Maryland<1%
- Massachusetts<1%
- New York<1%
- Pennsylvania<1%
- South Dakota<1%
- Wyoming<1%
- Arizona<1%
How the odds have moved
Georgia: 16% on Oct 20, 17% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 17% | 17¢ | 19¢ | $5.29 | $3.8K | |
| Nevada | 10% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.26 | $6.2K | |
| Kansas | 10% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $1.8K |
| Texas | 9% | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.35 | $1.8K | |
| Ohio | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | $2.6K | |
| Florida | 8% | ▲ 4 | 7¢ | 12¢ | $8.06 | $2K |
| Nebraska | 7% | ▲ 4 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.52 | $302 |
| Wisconsin | 6% | 6¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $2.5K | |
| Tennessee | 5% | 1¢ | 13¢ | $7.87 | $391 | |
| Arkansas | 4% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | $367 |
| Vermont | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | $2K | |
| Alabama | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | $344 |
| Oregon | 4% | ▲ 2 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $1.7K |
| New Hampshire | 3% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | $493 | |
| Iowa | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $416 |
| Oklahoma | 2% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $453 |
| Michigan | 2% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $308 |
| Alaska | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $353 | |
| South Carolina | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $253 | ||
| New Mexico | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $260 | ||
| Illinois | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $256 | ||
| Rhode Island | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $251 | ||
| Colorado | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $107 | ||
| Minnesota | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $211 | ||
| Maine | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $218 | ||
| California | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $238 | ||
| Connecticut | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $47 | ||
| Hawaii | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $236 | ||
| Idaho | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $231 | ||
| Maryland | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $162 | ||
| Massachusetts | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $233 | ||
| New York | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $81 | ||
| Pennsylvania | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $252 | ||
| South Dakota | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $218 | ||
| Wyoming | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $232 | ||
| Arizona | <1% | 0¢ | $157 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closest Governor
Search ›-
From Ohio To Texas, Seven Governor Races That Could Test Trump’s Grip On AmericaAs Americans begin casting their ballots ahead of the November 3 election, the race for governors’ mansions is attracting attention across the country. A total of 36 governorships will be decided this year, with several contests expected… -
Nevada voter ID ballot measure faces little public pushback from state DemocratsBy Ava Chatlosh (contact) Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026 | 2 a.m. Nevada’s proposed voter ID requirement is back on the ballot after winning overwhelming support two years ago — and opponents have mounted little public resistance as voters… -
2026 midterms: 7 key governor races to watch and where they stand(NewsNation) — With early voting underway in several states, 36 governorships are on the ballot Nov. 3. Decision Desk HQ's forecast (as of Oct. 18) has Democrats favored in 21 of the 36 races, with four rated as toss-ups. These are the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions