Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
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Closest Senate Race?
The odds
16%Iowa
- Iowa16%
- Texas15%▲ 3
- Kansas15%
- Maine9%
- Alaska8%
- Nebraska7%▲ 2
- Michigan6%
- South Carolina5%▼ 1
- Idaho4%▼ 1
- Ohio (Special)4%
- Florida (Special)3%
- Minnesota3%▼ 1
23 more
- Mississippi2%
- South Dakota2%▼ 1
- Montana1%▼ 1
- Arkansas1%
- Louisiana1%▼ 2
- New Hampshire1%
- Kentucky1%
- Colorado<1%
- New Mexico<1%
- Georgia<1%
- Virginia<1%
- North Carolina<1%
- Alabama<1%
- Delaware<1%
- Illinois<1%
- Massachusetts<1%
- New Jersey<1%
- Oklahoma<1%
- Oregon<1%
- Rhode Island<1%
- Tennessee<1%
- West Virginia<1%
- Wyoming<1%
How the odds have moved
Iowa: 16% on Oct 20, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 16% | 16¢ | 18¢ | $5.71 | $3K | |
| Texas | 15% | ▲ 3 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.41 | $4.1K |
| Kansas | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.45 | $8.1K | |
| Maine | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $9.90 | $1.8K | |
| Alaska | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | $2K | |
| Nebraska | 7% | ▲ 2 | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.43 | $975 |
| Michigan | 6% | 5¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | $1.6K | |
| South Carolina | 5% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | $2.6K |
| Idaho | 4% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $776 |
| Ohio (Special) | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $895 | |
| Florida (Special) | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | $1.8K | |
| Minnesota | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $1.1K |
| Mississippi | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $1.4K | |
| South Dakota | 2% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $629 |
| Montana | 1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $498 |
| Arkansas | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $2K | |
| Louisiana | 1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | $789 |
| New Hampshire | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $415 | |
| Kentucky | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $383 | ||
| Colorado | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| New Mexico | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Georgia | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Virginia | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $224 | ||
| North Carolina | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Alabama | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Delaware | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Illinois | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Massachusetts | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| New Jersey | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Oklahoma | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Oregon | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Rhode Island | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Tennessee | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| West Virginia | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $230 | ||
| Wyoming | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $220 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closest Senate
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Trump Admin Seeks to Block Alaska Senate Result if Dan Sullivan LosesOct 23, 2026 at 04:43 AM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 11:19 AM EDT The Trump administration aims to stop Alaska from certifying the Senate race result if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola and votes for another candidate… -
El-Sayed Says Israel Is ‘Not Our Friend,’ Giving Rogers New Ammunition in Tight Michigan Senate RaceMichigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed said Israel is “not our friend,” remarks that Republicans quickly seized on in one of the closest Senate races in the country. Asked by ABC News’ Linsey Davis whether he considers Israel an… -
Former Dem Senator Set to Campaign For GOP’s CollinsA long-time Democrat who left the party to become an Independent as it shifted further to the left is embracing a former GOP colleague as she fights for reelection. Former Sen. Joe Manchin is campaigning alongside Republican Sen. Susan… -
Election Model Defies New Ohio Poll, Keeps Jon Husted Barely Favored Over Sherrod BrownRepublican Sen. Jon Husted just got a potentially crucial piece of good news in one of the closest Senate races in America. A new forecast gives Husted the narrowest of edges over Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s special U.S. Senate… -
Republican and Democratic paths to Senate victory(NewsNation) — As President Donald Trump's second term approaches its halfway point, Democrats and Republicans are fighting to take control of the U.S. Senate this midterm season. With the war in Iran, rising gas prices and record-low…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions