Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes tomorrow 11:59 PM ET · $47.2K today · $176K traded · $16.3K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

87%Together

Together87%▲ 2
Otzma Yehudit6%▲ 2
Likud2%▼ 1
The Democrats1%▼ 3
Shas<1%▼ 3
Yisrael Beiteinu<1%
United Torah Judaism<1%▼ 1
Joint List<1%
Yashar<1%▼ 2
RZP-Zehut<1%
Ra'am<1%
Blue and White<1%

3 more

Amcha Yisrael<1%
Noam<1%
The Reservists and the Economic Party<1%

How the odds have moved

Together: 76% on Oct 20, 87% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETTogether: 77% → 82%
- Likud accused Ben Gvir of harming the right • Otzma Yehudit: 'The 'shooting at the Nimesh' is yours!''חרדים10 · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Together	87%	▲ 2	86¢	87¢	$1.15	$113K
Otzma Yehudit	6%	▲ 2	5¢	7¢	$13.51	$10K
Likud	2%	▼ 1	1¢	2¢	$45.45	$7.6K
The Democrats	1%	▼ 3	1¢	1¢		$8.9K
Shas	<1%	▼ 3	0¢	0¢		$4.2K
Yisrael Beiteinu	<1%		0¢	0¢		$5K
United Torah Judaism	<1%	▼ 1	0¢	0¢		$4.2K
Joint List	<1%		0¢	0¢		$6.1K
Yashar	<1%	▼ 2	0¢	0¢		$6.4K
RZP-Zehut	<1%		0¢	0¢		$4K
Ra'am	<1%		0¢	0¢		$3.6K
Blue and White	<1%			0¢		$629
Amcha Yisrael	<1%			0¢		$456
Noam	<1%			0¢		$519
The Reservists and the Economic Party	<1%			0¢		$932

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Legislative, Otzma Yehudit

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Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit to JNS: Israel needs a strong right-wing blocIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 78 min agoThe Knesset needs a strong right-wing bloc to keep Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu true to his principles, the Otzma Yehudit party campaign told JNS on Monday, a day before the election. “That’s how we get the Bibi we want,” National…
Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 25 min agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Who is Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli firebrand rising with the populist right across the globe?Fox News · 22 h agoKnesset candidate Yishai Fleisher discusses party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Israel’s most controversial politicians, who could have a major say in Netanyahu’s political future as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday. Polling ahead of…
Ben Gvir slams Netanyahu's campaign to draw votes away from Otzma Yehuditfreerepublic.com · 47 h agoOtzma Yehudit chairman and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Friday criticized efforts by the Likud party to attract voters away from his party, claiming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to establish a broad…
Iran War Updates: Tehran shrugs off Trump's attack threats, says diplomacy ongoing as oil prices stay highCBS News · 5 h agoOctober 26, 2026 / 6:45 AM EDT / CBS News What to know about the Iran war today: The price of Brent crude oil hovered around $115 a barrel early Monday after surging at the end of last week over global supply concerns linked to the ongoing…
Newly-released footage: Ben Gvir warned of Hamas threat days before October 7Israel National News · 4 h agoOtzma Yehudit releases footage of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir warning of Hamas' increased strength, calling for tougher action just three days before the October 7 massacre. Newly-released footage: Ben Gvir warned of Hamas…
The Battle for 61: Netanyahu's post-election strategyIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 6 h agoPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enters Tuesday’s election with an established political bloc but no guaranteed majority. Most polls project Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist–Zehut falling short of the…
Israel on the Brink of a Tectonic ShiftNew Eastern Outlook · 4 h agoThe October 27 election will be a plebiscite not only on Netanyahu but on the very essence of Israeli statehood. Israel is a country trapped in an “interregnum.” The political situation on the eve of the vote is paradoxical. The country is…
Israel puts Palestinian prisoners in solitary for making a cakeThe New Arab · 4 h agoGaza ceasefire has not stopped Israel from committing genocide Israel puts Palestinian prisoners in solitary for making a cake Jordan unites as victims' families recount Karak church massacre Could Syria help Saudi Arabia fight the Houthis…
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have done ‘enormous reputational damage’ to Israel, says billionaire Bill Ackman ahead of Knesset electionThe Jewish Chronicle · 3 h agoThe prominent investor and outspoken pro-Israel advocate has called for the two far-right leaders to be excluded from the next coalition government Billionaire American investor Bill Ackman has called for Israel’s national security and…
Agudat Yisrael, Naftali Bennett weigh key roles in post-election scenariosThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 7 h agoAgudat Yisrael, the three-MK haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could provide some form of support for a government led by a member of the opposition, according to assessments within the political establishment ahead of the…
Gaza is 'Jewish people's land' Itamar Ben-Gvir tells 'Post' | The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 18 h agoGazans should be sent to emigrate to France or other countries in Europe so that Israel can “conquer the whole territory” of the Gaza Strip, far Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told The Jerusalem Post in a recent…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 27, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$176K

Today$47.2K

This week$82.2K

At stake$16.3K

In the news1 headlines today, 9 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions