Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $14.9K today · $496K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 35 min ago

The odds

Oct 28, 2026even chance by

October 196%▼ 6
October 2043%▲ 15
October 2143%▼ 32
October 2243%▲ 28
October 2343%▲ 55
October 2443%▼ 1
October 2543%▼ 1
October 2643%▼ 61
October 2744%▼ 17
October 2861%▼ 3
October 2961%▼ 2
October 3068%▼ 2

1 more

October 3168%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

October 27: 72% on Oct 20, 44% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 27, 4 AM ETOctober 27: 54% → 44%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 3	<1%			0¢		$1.4K
✓ October 4	>99%	▲ 13	99¢	100¢		$5.1K
✓ October 5	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$2K
✓ October 6	>99%	▲ 48	100¢	100¢		$18.4K
October 7	<1%			0¢		$16.1K
October 8	<1%			0¢		$1.4K
✓ October 9	>99%	▲ 66	100¢	100¢		$2.7K
✓ October 10	>99%	▲ 61	100¢	100¢		$49.3K
✓ October 11	>99%	▲ 62	100¢	100¢		$3.5K
✓ October 12	>99%	▲ 50	100¢	100¢		$2K
✓ October 13	>99%	▲ 56	100¢	100¢		$15.8K
✓ October 14	>99%	▲ 41	100¢	100¢		$60.8K
✓ October 15	>99%	▲ 13	100¢	100¢		$6.1K
✓ October 16	>99%	▲ 14	100¢	100¢		$33.8K
✓ October 17	>99%	▲ 23	100¢	100¢		$28.1K
✓ October 18	>99%	▲ 17	100¢	100¢		$168K
October 19	6%	▼ 6	3¢	9¢	$11.24	$7.3K
October 20	43%	▲ 15	100¢	100¢		$34.7K
October 21	43%	▼ 32		0¢		$26.5K
October 22	43%	▲ 28	100¢	100¢		$2.3K
October 23	43%	▲ 55	92¢	100¢		$3.6K
October 24	43%	▼ 1	0¢	2¢	$66.67	$2.6K
October 25	43%	▼ 1	0¢	3¢	$40.00	$2.3K
October 26	43%	▼ 61	3¢	5¢	$20.41	$1.4K
October 27	44%	▼ 17	36¢	52¢	$1.92	$460
October 28	61%	▼ 3	58¢	65¢	$1.54	$85
October 29	61%	▼ 2	50¢	70¢	$1.43	$95
October 30	68%	▼ 2	51¢	85¢	$1.18	$27
October 31	68%	▼ 3	51¢	84¢	$1.19	$25

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

Search ›

Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionNewsweek · 35 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country…
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townNPR · 24 h agoRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian…
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineNewsweek · 37 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S…
Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkrainePatrika News · 30 h agoSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
Ukraine war briefing: Trilateral peace talks with Russia to restart, says Zelenskyythe Guardian · 32 h agoUkraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart…
Zelensky says trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meeting to take place in NovemberMacau Business · 24 h agoUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said that a trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow would take place in November aiming to restart stalled peace talks. “We are ready to talk. If it’s a territorial issue, it…
Ukraine, US, Russia expected to hold trilateral talks in November, says ZelenskyHindustan Times · 28 h agoUkrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukraine, the United States and Russia are expected to hold trilateral talks in November, in a bid to revive negotiations that have remained deadlocked. “We are ready to talk. If…
Zelensky: Ukraine Offered US 3 Ways to Stop Strikes on Russian Oil RefineriesKyiv Post · 25 h agoIn brief: Zelensky said Ukraine was prepared to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the US enabled Starlink coverage over Russia, or Washington supplied Patriot missiles. He…
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionBBC Sport · 42 h agoWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the…
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Kyiv disputes Musk’s Starlink claims as Zelensky says peace talks to resumeThe Independent · 28 h agoZelensky announces trilateral meeting with Russia and the US in November Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to president Volodymyr Zelensky, rejected that claim, arguing the restrictions would have made it “physically impossible” for Ukraine…
Zelensky: Bipartisan support for Ukraine in U.S. grows stronger@ukrinform · 30 h agoSupport for Ukraine in the U.S. among Republicans and Democrats is now stronger than it has been in the past year and a half. â Ukrinform. Ukrinform - Ukrainian National News Agency Volodymyr Zelensky said this in an interview with…
Letters: Support Ukraine in fight against tyrant PutinThe Advocate · 28 h agoThe only threat Russian President Vladimir Putin faces is a popular uprising. Ukraine was becoming a successful democracy established by a popular uprising. That is why Putin invaded. The only threat Russian President Vladimir Putin faces…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$496K

Today$14.9K

This week$16.2K

At stake$1.5K

In the news593 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfir

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions