Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $553 today · $18K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

65%OpenAI

OpenAI65%▼ 1
Anthropic24%
Meta3%
Alibaba3%
Moonshot2%
DeepSeek2%
SpaceXAI2%
ByteDance2%
Xiaomi2%
Z.ai2%
Google1%▼ 1
Tencent1%▼ 1

4 more

Thinky1%
MiniMax<1%
Poolside<1%
Mistral<1%

How the odds have moved

OpenAI: 60% on Oct 20, 65% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
OpenAI	65%	▼ 1	65¢	66¢	$1.52	$5.4K
Anthropic	24%		24¢	26¢	$3.85	$8.2K
Meta	3%		1¢	5¢	$19.23	$380
Alibaba	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$293
Moonshot	2%		1¢	5¢	$21.74	$364
DeepSeek	2%		0¢	5¢	$20.83	$295
SpaceXAI	2%		1¢	4¢	$22.73	$432
ByteDance	2%		1¢	4¢	$23.26	$304
Xiaomi	2%		1¢	4¢	$23.26	$305
Z.ai	2%		0¢	4¢	$23.81	$330
Google	1%	▼ 1	1¢	2¢	$50.00	$385
Tencent	1%	▼ 1	0¢	2¢	$52.63	$294
Thinky	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$318
MiniMax	<1%		0¢	0¢		$205
Poolside	<1%		0¢	0¢		$226
Mistral	<1%		0¢	0¢		$204

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

90%OpenAI

OpenAI90%▲ 1
Anthropic4%▼ 1
Google3%▲ 1

13 more

Meta2%▼ 1
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
SpaceXAI1%
Z.ai1%▼ 2
ByteDance<1%
Poolside<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Tencent<1%
MiniMax<1%
Xiaomi<1%
Thinky<1%
Mistral<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

86%Google

Google86%▼ 4
Anthropic8%▲ 2
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

71%No release by October 31

No release by October 3171%▲ 3
October 2714%▼ 4
October 266%▲ 2

11 more

October 285%▲ 2
October 294%▼ 1
October 301%▼ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 21, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3128%▼ 4
December 3193%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

53%Anthropic

Anthropic53%▼ 1
Google36%▼ 2
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta2%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$18K

Today$553

This week$2.7K

At stake$1.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ran

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company100.38+0.74%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company319.33−0.28%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company643.10+0.07%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions