Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $149 today · $6.1K traded · $958 at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

42%Google

Google42%
Anthropic38%▼ 2
Meta11%
Alibaba8%▲ 2
SpaceXAI7%
Microsoft7%
Tencent5%
StepFun5%
DeepSeek3%▲ 1
OpenAI3%
Thinky2%
Moonshot1%

9 more

Z.ai1%
Baidu1%
Xiaomi1%
Meituan1%
ByteDance1%
MiniMax1%
Mistral1%
Amazon1%
Nvidia1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Google	42%		41¢	43¢	$2.33	$1.5K
Anthropic	38%	▼ 2	35¢	41¢	$2.44	$1.9K
Meta	11%		10¢	12¢	$8.33	$212
Alibaba	8%	▲ 2	0¢	15¢	$6.71	$151
SpaceXAI	7%		0¢	13¢	$7.58	$129
Microsoft	7%		0¢	13¢	$7.69	$175
Tencent	5%		0¢	11¢	$9.43	$133
StepFun	5%		0¢	10¢	$10.42	$120
DeepSeek	3%	▲ 1	0¢	7¢	$15.15	$131
OpenAI	3%		1¢	5¢	$18.87	$149
Thinky	2%		0¢	3¢	$33.33	$143
Moonshot	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$131
Z.ai	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$139
Baidu	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$131
Xiaomi	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$139
Meituan	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$171
ByteDance	1%			1¢	$100.00	$110
MiniMax	1%			1¢	$100.00	$133
Mistral	1%			1¢	$100.00	$101
Amazon	1%		0¢	1¢		$131
Nvidia	1%			1¢	$100.00	$101

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

73%Google

Google73%▼ 3
Anthropic19%▼ 2
OpenAI4%▲ 2

18 more

Meta3%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Z.ai<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Baidu<1%
Xiaomi<1%
DeepSeek<1%
ByteDance<1%
MiniMax<1%
Thinky<1%
Meituan<1%
Mistral<1%
Amazon<1%
Nvidia<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

73%Google

Google73%▲ 3
Anthropic24%▼ 5
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 27, 2026even chance by

October 2120%▼ 22
October 2240%▼ 22
October 2440%▼ 32

2 more

October 3175%▼ 7
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.1Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.15%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.15%Middle half 25.54% – 27.15%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.1K

Today$149

This week$6.1K

At stake$958

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the m

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company262.45+4.98%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.78−0.45%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company344.18+1.05%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company533.52+0.84%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA · about the company217.09+1.38%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.